September 2012

Having scanned through the charts tonight there's a number of charts at inflection points but nothing that I could deem as high probability, or at least high probability with minimal potential draw-down. CAD JPY is one of the more interesting FX pairs but comes with a warning; Different time frames are showing potentially different outcomes, but I do think it's possible there's a short term trade coming up.

GBP:NZD was a potential swing long candidate a couple of Months back and although it rebounded from my "line in the sand" support, it sliced through some quite strong supports on it's journey there so I gave it a miss. One of those failed "supports" was in the 1.9510 area and you can see from the chart below that it failed to provide support in July and again in August.

Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends. Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult. There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon

Apologies for the delay in updating on this Weeks Swing Trades, or, lack of them should I say! The only trade taken this Week was the EUR:AUD short which was unfortunately stopped out. From a news stand point, the decision by the Fed to continue pumping vast amounts of money into the markets with no end date spurred the Euro to continue it's rally in most Euro crosses, and thus due to the low potential reward envisaged on the EUR:AUD short my relatively tight stop loss was taken out to the tune of 100 points.