November 2012

I have a bit of a Dilemma. Entered a DOW long today at 12,870 which is currently showing +105 pts. Based on today's price action and the fact we are entering December you have to consider that the base is now in for the Santa rally. At the same time however, we have this stat I posted on the ADVFN forum last night which suggests switching short tonight:

The only new Swing trade taken this Week was the EUR:CAD swing long which I've held over the Weekend. The trade is based solely around the 200 MA on the 4 hourly time frame where many pairs exhibit bullish tendencies above the 200 MA and bearish tendencies below it. It's a simplified method of swing trading and defies my normal logic of requiring at least 3 independent solid reasons offering support for a trade before considering entry.

As mentioned in last Week's update, my eye has been off the ball over the last few Week's due to a number of commitments I've needed to make in my personal life outside of trading. Don't get me wrong, I've still been following the markets and day trading, but not had the time to really go into detail with new analysis. Some Week's ago I posted analysis on both EUR:GBP and CAD:JPY, and felt both those trades were still valid to enter despite them heading towards oversold territory, the implication was simply just a less good risk/reward.

Due to other commitments outside of trading my attention has been predominantly elsewhere though I have tried to follow Market movements where possible. Firstly, a brief outlook of Stock Markets based specifically around the DOW which may look like it's going to plunge, but I'm not sure about pre-empting that move for the following reasons:

Unfortunately I don't practice what I preach, possibly because trading Indices helps me get a feel for what's going on in the markets overall. But, based on my experience, ignoring Indices completely and just swing trading currencies with wide stops and small positions is the most profitable way for retail traders like ourselves to make money in the markets.

First of all I'd like to apologise for neglecting the blog over the last Week, and to say I appreciate how many of you come back every day to check for new posts. My commitments outside of trading have been immense over the last couple of Weeks and this looks likely to continue for a short while so I've not had the chance to really get into the trades I wanted to take.

From a swing trading perspective I did absolutely nothing this Week! Almost everything I'm watching traded within a range and it's becoming increasingly difficult to gauge the direction any breaks from those ranges will be. The watch list remains the same as that described in last Weekend's update though maybe I've missed potentially good entries on EUR:GBP which remains on the radar, as does AUD:CAD and CAD:JPY