March 2013

Following last Week's analysis of NZD:CHF I spent the earlier part of this Week looking for an entry, but the pair just wouldn't pull back. Every time I checked the chart it had rallied further than so in view of the fact it just rallied and rallied on its previous break out I decided to just take the plunge and run with it using wide-ish stops. Entering trades mid-rally has never been something I'm particularly good at as it almost guarantees an instant correction and although NZD:CHF initially rallied when I entered the trade at 0.7955 it has since retraced a little and the trade goes into the Weekend showing approximately -10 points. Looking back its fair to say I may have left this set-up too long before taking it but if it can still reach my target of 0.8210 that would give a gain of 250 points whereas if my stop loss is taken out it would incur a loss of around 170 points. I guess the risk vs reward is OK for a high probability trade, but its certainly not brilliant.

Whilst waiting for previously discussed swing trade entries (aside from NZD:CHF where I entered the proposed swing long), here's a snap shot of whats going on with Indices.

FTSE 4 Hourly.

No obvious direction but I'd probably want to wait for the outcome of this descending triangle before taking any position. A descending triangle is usually bearish and a breakdown would offer a technical measured move target of 6135

I put so much energy into day trading the volatility over the last Week that I actually missed out on some reasonably good swing trade set-ups that were previously discussed here. One of those was AUD:USD for a swing long, I actually entered that position but got frightened out of it for a small profit as the markets became quite uncertain and jumpy surrounding Cyprus and Europe news.

Although no new Swing trades were taken this Week, there are a number of trading set-ups on the watchlist, some of which I discussed in posts throughout the Week. As I write this, Sunday night futures have already opened and there are huge gaps all over the place following the news out of Cyprus. I don't really know how the market will take this, of course bearishly is the obvious answer but the markets have shrugged off much worse in the past.

Presented with little commentary are these GBP:CAD charts showing price testing the bottom of its 3 Year trading range. I've been wrong on this pair before, so I'm not going to say "buy it" because this time could be different, and there's nothing on the chart convincing me that this support will hold. In fact, indications point to a large sell off if this breaks down.... But you need to make the call!

The Markets produced a fairly interesting Week with the DOW achieving all time highs and not finding any apparent resistance at the previous 2007 all time high. Quite amazing to consider that every long position you had ever taken will now be showing a significant profit! In fact, I'd guess most of us would be multi-millionaires if we'd held onto every DOW long trade ever taken!