September 2013

Following my 3 Week break I feel I'm trading at quite a comfortable and relaxed pace continuing to hold the DAX and GBP:CAD swing long positions. DAX as with other indices seems to be going through a correction at present but its quite clear DAX remains one of the strongest Indices. As you know, my system shorted FTSE back in May on the basis a medium to long term top may be in place. Bearing this in mind it could turn out the DAX Monthly break-out candle is little more than a fake-out and I am concerned that the huge profits seen on that trade will turn to dust, but I'm quite determined to stick to the plan on this one unless I see a real break-down in the technicals.

Just a quick post to say following on from previous GBP:CAD analysis I've entered a swing long position with stop loss set on a Daily close below this Week's low. I don't normally buy break-outs like this generally preferring to buy a back test of the break-out level but I miss so many trades with that strategy that I've just bit the bullet and entered long. After all, price has just broken out to 3 Year highs and it would be incredibly unfortunate if I've bought the top!

It's been one Week since restarting trading and the very first trade I opened got off to a brilliant start. The DAX long was taken on Friday 13th of all dates but got off to a great start by rallying 300 points within 4 trading days. It was very tempting to just bank that profit and I do fear my own judgement in being able to hold that trade as originally intended. As a reminder the plan was/is to hold it based on the Monthly and Weekly charts as opposed to smaller time frames and I've never based a trade on such time scales before.

Having briefly made 3 Year lows back in March (which I actually bought and got stopped out at the lowest pip), GBP:CAD has now broken 3 Year highs. So the question needs to be asked; Are we about to see a huge rally or will resistance send the pair back into the long term trading range? Having been wrong around 50% of the time on this pair I'm probably not qualified to answer, however I put the question to members of my ADVFN forum where the majority believed price would sell off back into the long term range.

After a refreshing 3 Week break from the Markets I'm now back and scanning through the charts of which some have surprised me, the strength in the Pound in particular. Last Week I entered a DAX long for which I've only now got the opportunity to talk about. This trade is based on the Monthly chart and I've never before taken a trade on such a large time frame. Furthermore I had to stop myself being influenced by other Indices because none of them support the type of strength I'm seeing on the DAX even as far as to say my system is still short from May on the FTSE Daily chart.