October 2013

You may have spotted there was no trading round-up over the Weekend just gone. This was simply due to the fact no new trades have been taken and the suggested swing trades I had lined up either didn't provide what I was looking for on smaller time frames to enter, or, I missed the entries and decided to let them go. There are a couple of swing set-ups I'd like to focus on over the next couple of days and I'll post further details ahead of entries if they start going to plan.

I've decided to close half of the DAX swing long to take a profit of 503 pts. I'll update the trading log with the aggregate profit once the entire trade has been closed but for now the remaining half  is to continue running, not sure of target etc, just going to trail it. Stops currently at b/e but will have a closer look at raising them over the next day or two. Having held the trade for almost 6 Weeks its probably the longest held trade so far this Year and is paying off accordingly. This chart shows the trade along with my emotions and reasons for banking half thus far:

As the Week started with uncertainty over the debt ceiling situation I chose to have a lazy Week to avoid jumping into trades I may regret! Of course this was despite the debt ceiling conclusion being pretty predictable. The DAX swing long is still running, showing circa 380 pips profit based on current futures pricing. Whilst I didn't swing trade the last Week I have had my eye on a few charts so here's a brief run through of a couple of the more interesting ones:

With potential volatility likely across most markets over the U.S debt ceiling farce I've avoided taking any new swing trades and spent the Week day trading Indices. The DAX swing long survived the correction but its yet to be seen whether the current rally will run to new highs or, as I suspect, a lower high. Despite the trade being taken across analysis from the Monthly and Weekly time frames, I think if we see a lower high on the Daily chart it would be sensible to bank profits and close the trade. The trade went into the Weekend showing 270 points profit, but who knows what will happen when futures open tonight. So far based on currency futures its a bit of a mixed bag, but I think most indicators are pointing towards a bit of a gap down tonight.

Although my concentration lies with swing trading, there are times when a great trading set-up makes day trading worthwhile so here's a quick synopsis of a trade I took earlier today. On the Daily timeframe my system has remained short on the FTSE 100 since May 2013, although the Hourly time frame has switched between short and long on a few occasions. However, today's trade was based on the simplest form of T.A but keeping in mind that I find FTSE a quirky index that has its own characteristics. 

As the Week began I felt quite content in continuing to run both GBP:CAD and DAX swing long trades but the short term picture for both has changed, drastically so for GBP:CAD. Being committed elsewhere on Friday I didn't even log into my account so you can imagine the shock when I logged in after market close to see GBP:CAD that had been showing a +300 pip profit now showing a -160 pip loss! It's unbelievable how much damage can be done to a great trade in a single day, and I absolutely didn't see it coming.