21 Nov AUD CHF Swing Short Entry Set-Up For W/C 21st November 2011
I really need to apologise on this one as it’s a set up I’ve had my eye on for 3 Weeks and each time I checked the chart it wasn’t quite ready to post an entry, but now I may have left it too long for the perfect entry, however, a possibility of a good short may still exist.
The Weekly chart shows that the huge rally stalled at the 61.8% Fib level which also combined with the Weekly 100MA. Quite a powerful combination but as the ideal entry materialised overnight and had sold off quite a bit by the time I woke up, it was one I didn’t get a chance to capitalise on. Furthermore there is an area of possible support not far below the current Weekly candle, nothing that this support only really validates on a Weekly candle closing basis so it is a level that’ll probably get ignored on an intraday basis:
In order to make the trade come good, we need to see a retrace from current levels, ideally in a similar way to that depicted in the 4 hourly chart below where price rebounds back to the 200 MA, and rejection at this level that will determine a very good short entry:
The 200MA on the 4 hourly time frame is one of the best trend indicators I’ve come across. Almost every sell off (or rally) will revisit this MA and it’s the reaction at this level that will determine whether the trend really has changed. Let’s hope AUD:CHF follows the plan!