AUD NZD Long Term Outlook For W/C 26th Sept 2011

AUD NZD Long Term Outlook For W/C 26th Sept 2011

Not a great deal to say about AUD NZD and although the chart does show some mildly bearish possibilities, I remain bullish until the August 1.2319 low is broken on a daily close.

My earlier swing long attempt ended with the trade being stopped out right where the horizontal red line is shown on the chart. That’s pretty frustrating, but hindsight makes it clear that my stop loss should have been place either much higher up to have limited losses sooner, or, below the August low which would still have offered a great risk/reward trade in view of my circled target price area.

MACD shows some positive divergence at the August lows which may just be corrective and can only be assured as impulsive once resistance 1.2814 is broken and confirmed on a daily closing basis. Entering long above this level is the lower risked option but in view of the overall fundamental outlook I’d like to be more aggressive in getting long before this resistance is broken.

There is no rush to enter this trade so I’ll continue to watch and will update with a comment if an intraday set-up get’s me into this trade. Any longs would preferably be initiated at the lower end of the current trading range to allow for tighter stops and to avoid entering long at the top end of another lower high.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 18:08h, 28 September

    I entered this trade this morning.

    Little bit nervous as I don’t like to be stung by the same trade twice. As I type, price is + 45 above my entry. Stop loss is below the August low.

    I’m undecided what to do with stop loss – Leaving it below August low would be a bit much to swallow if stopped out having been stopped out before, but to manage the trade properly and stick to my guns that is probably where the stop should be.

    I may raise the stop loss to just below yesterdays low (1.2523) which would limit risk considerably, and would also signal the liklihood that if broken, the August low is going to be re-tested.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 22:08h, 18 October

    I closed this position tonight for a 368 point gain.

    It hasn’t hit my target and I still believe in my target, but I feel that the rally might be looking a little bit stretched right now so I’m happy to close with a view to re-entering on a pull back to support in the 1.2814 region.

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