Mid Week Euro Observations; EUR:USD And EUR:AUD

Mid Week Euro Observations; EUR:USD And EUR:AUD

A quick post to show a couple of things I’m watching with interest relative to the Euro.


The Weekly chart established a trend line within a Year of the Euro’s launch. Now that trend line is being tested and although other time frames suggest it’s going lower, it would be worthwhile watching this level carefully. A break here could accelerate some significant downside, whilst support would offer a cautious buying opportunity allowing for very tight stops based on a ¬†Weekly close beneath the trend line:


You will probably well know that I’ve been following this Box Trade set-up for some time now. If it’s going to play out, then now is the time to have a watchful eye over it:

In the short term I will be watching this hourly Fibonacci retrace, if price cannot gain traction above the 61.8% Fib level, then this could be the start of the next leg down we’ve waited so long for. It’s good that the 61.8% retrace here coincides with the low of the huge bearish engulfing candle from the highs, those highs having filled a gap from a previous gap down on 1st April 2012. That level should encourage selling, if it doesn’t, be cautious taking short positions.

Worth noting that if you are a trader who takes note of gaps, there’s another gap much higher up from November 2011. I can’t see a rally taking us to those levels, but it’s another thing to bear in mind.

If I take any positions on either of these set-ups, I’ll post details in the comments section and update the trades log.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 11:25h, 25 May

    EUR:AUD Swing short now entered. Much much later than I hoped to enter, simple fact is I’ve not been near a screen whilst the better short term set-ups materialised and I tend not to use limit orders as I like to gauge price action as it happens. Going to play it carefully initially due to potential Euro volatility.

  • Pingback:This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up 27th May 2012
    Posted at 20:54h, 28 May

    […] with only 1 new position taken.EUR:AUD was rejected perfectly by the 61.8% fib retrace detailed in this post, however I wanted confirmation of this rejection before entering a position and unfortunately each […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 22:39h, 30 May

    Closed half the EUR:AUD Short at 1.2737 for + 114 pts.

    Wont have PC access for much of the next 24 hours and am seeing some potentially bullish set-ups on shorter time frames. Furthermore, I do have an upside retrace target (1.2870 ish) that may offer an eventual re-entry at better numbers.

  • Pingback:This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up 17th June 2012
    Posted at 18:37h, 17 June

    […] this will affect various correlated Market’s remains uncertain for now.AUD:NZD (short) and EUR:AUD (short) still remain as my main open swing positions and I’ve kept them open through this […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 17:44h, 18 June

    2nd half of EUR:AUD swing short closed at target level of 1.2478 for +373 points.

    Total aggregate profit of +244 pts across both halves of the position.