Author: RS2OOO

Having started the Week with absolutely no idea how things were likely to pan out it seems surprising that I've now got a bulging watch list! Strange how it works out. Other than the NZD pairs discussed earlier in the Week, nothing is quite ready to talk about in detail just yet but I continue to watch. Yen pairs were something I wanted to stay away from but in hindsight I've probably been mad to ignore them. I mean, BOJ are pumping $80 billion worth of QE each Month and will continue to do so for as long as it takes to boost their flat economy. This is probably something that shouldn't be ignored although my concern at the time was that it broke G7 rules but if anything the G7 are supporting it.

Following overnight news that RBNZ have been selling NZD due to their belief its over-valued with a promise to continue intervention as necessary, I decided to take a closer look.


When trading this pair I find MACD very helpful. With regards to the long side, I would analyse as follows. Cons: The Weekly candle is up against the 20 MA, quite a common retrace level in a Weekly trend. Also, my downside target of 1.71 hasn't been achieved yet so I'm not convinced a long term low is in place, but a medium term one could well be.

The first trading decision I made this Week has constantly haunted me since. After 2 Weeks sitting in the NZD:CHF swing long with no results to speak of I decided enough was enough and set the stop loss to break-even. That decision was made around 5 hours before it made a bee-line for my stop loss and then followed it off with a huge rally, the rally I'd given up waiting for. So frustrating!

Just a quick post to make you aware of this set-up if you've not yet seen it. As simple as the set-up looks, its worth watching because such trades can deliver significant Risk Versus Reward ratios based around the ability to quickly spot if the trade isn't going to work out. Any signs of resistance at the re-test of this falling channel should find sellers. If the trade is entered and price continues straight upwards then its best to cut losses quickly and forget about it. Some of my most profitable trades have come from set-ups like this so even if only 1/3 of them play out, they are still worth taking note of.

Sometimes the Markets get the better of me and no matter how much I analyse the situation there just doesn't seem to be an answer that can prevent the same occurrence in the future. Such an occurrence arose today with the NZD:CHF swing long. This is the 2nd swing long in succession on this pair having taken profits first time round only to see another desirable set-up soon after. Having held this 2nd swing for almost 2 Weeks with absolutely no progress, last night I decided it was time for a closer look. The result of this was to effectively forfeit any further risk by setting the stop loss at break even.

It's been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes. After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I've since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can be found here.

Unfortunately I'm too late posting this analysis because much of the shorter term move I was looking for took place before I had chance to write about it. EUR:USD has been on the watch list ahead of a potential swing long for some Weeks now with an ideal long entry to be taken on a retest of 1.3000 from above following a rally from support in the 1.2750 region.