19 Jun Brief Look At USD:CAD; 19th June 2013
USD CAD caught my interest after the FOMC announcement tonight and on inspection I was surprised to see its been trending upwards since September of last Year. In fact you could argue its been trending up ever since July 2011 although in reality its been pretty much range bound.
The area around 1.0253 has been marked on my chart as S/R for a considerable length of time and its fair to say price has been through it in both directions numerous times before but breaks above that level do seem to coincide with short bursts of strength that propel it 150 – 200 points higher relatively quickly.
Tonight’s FOMC 4 hourly candle through that level and the retest from the subsequent 4 hourly candle appear to be indicating that another such burst might be on the cards.
Therefore depending on how things look over the next 24 hours I may look to enter a short term long initially targeting the 1.0450 area. If strength does continue beyond that level, a nice ultimate target of 1.0681 is worth considering.
The only reason I’ve not entered the trade just yet is simply because U.S Indices closed at an inflection point tonight and could go either direction tomorrow and as USD:CAD tends to move in the opposite direction to the Indices I’d like to gauge overall sentiment throughout the session following today’s FOMC announcement before committing to a position.
In all honesty it doesn’t show much but here’s the 4 hourly chart as things stand right now: