The increase in volatility across Indices has been quite notable over the last 6 Weeks and this often occurs before a deep correction or a trend change. Therefore here's a few longer term charts of some Indices to look at the bigger picture.
From the outset this looks like a healthy chart. There are historical corrections on DOW and SPX that look identical to this one and on every occasion the Bull markets continued in both Indices. As things stand, shorting this would be a risky place to be.
Here's the follow on from the DOW charts posted earlier in the Week.
The 61.8% fib level from the April low to May high lies at 14,870 but you'll generally find price will pierce the fib level and ultimately you want to see the hourly candle closing above it.
So to find a more realistic target you need to look to the left of the chart for areas of possible S/R and in this case there is some congestion between 14,830 and 14,855 but nothing that precisely defines support.
Whilst I'm still hunting down my next swing trade, here's a quick look at the Hourly and 4 Hourly DOW charts as seen from my perspective.
I've zoomed right in on this Hourly chart to give a better picture of the triangle breakdown.
Sometimes the Markets get the better of me and no matter how much I analyse the situation there just doesn't seem to be an answer that can prevent the same occurrence in the future. Such an occurrence arose today with the NZD:CHF swing long.
This is the 2nd swing long in succession on this pair having taken profits first time round only to see another desirable set-up soon after. Having held this 2nd swing for almost 2 Weeks with absolutely no progress, last night I decided it was time for a closer look. The result of this was to effectively forfeit any further risk by setting the stop loss at break even.
It's been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes.
After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I've since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can be found here.
This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I've carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I've still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management.
Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I'll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I'll just monitor it on a day by day basis.
Whilst waiting for previously discussed swing trade entries (aside from NZD:CHF where I entered the proposed swing long), here's a snap shot of whats going on with Indices.
FTSE 4 Hourly.
No obvious direction but I'd probably want to wait for the outcome of this descending triangle before taking any position. A descending triangle is usually bearish and a breakdown would offer a technical measured move target of 6135
A quick mention before I talk about this FTSE chart in case you missed it in the comments section, the USD:CHF swing long is now 90% closed. I've not marked it on the trades log yet simply because I opted to run the last 10% of the trade just to see where it takes me.
With DOW making all time new highs today, I thought I'd take a look at FTSE.