The increase in volatility across Indices has been quite notable over the last 6 Weeks and this often occurs before a deep correction or a trend change. Therefore here's a few longer term charts of some Indices to look at the bigger picture.
From the outset this looks like a healthy chart. There are historical corrections on DOW and SPX that look identical to this one and on every occasion the Bull markets continued in both Indices. As things stand, shorting this would be a risky place to be.
Apologies again for taking so long to provide an update, just haven't had the time to concentrate on swing trading.
The last swing trade taken for the blog was the AUD:CAD swing short which and this was stopped out on the day it printed its high...
It's been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes.
After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I've since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can be found here.
Although I promised myself the NZD:CHF swing long would not be closed until the 0.8210 target was hit, this mornings rally had a bit of a blow-off look to it and I couldn't resist closing the trade at 0.8064 to bank a 109 point profit. Taking that profit probably wasn't a professional thing to do as it technically makes the risk vs reward on the trade less than 1:1 because the stop loss was around 200 points away. Anyway, its done now and the trade is closed, but I probably wouldn't discount re-entering the position if circumstances become attractive again.
Whilst waiting for previously discussed swing trade entries (aside from NZD:CHF where I entered the proposed swing long), here's a snap shot of whats going on with Indices.
FTSE 4 Hourly.
No obvious direction but I'd probably want to wait for the outcome of this descending triangle before taking any position. A descending triangle is usually bearish and a breakdown would offer a technical measured move target of 6135
A quick mention before I talk about this FTSE chart in case you missed it in the comments section, the USD:CHF swing long is now 90% closed. I've not marked it on the trades log yet simply because I opted to run the last 10% of the trade just to see where it takes me.
With DOW making all time new highs today, I thought I'd take a look at FTSE.
Having taken a closer look at most of the Swing Trade candidates for next Week I've concluded that most FX pairs I'm watching need at least another session to determine their viability. By the same token so do Indices and although we are seeing strong bearish signs we've yet to see a confirmed lower high.
Flicking through a number of blogs it's quite clear that
Having Day Traded FTSE and DOW for a few years I've built up an over-familiarity with them that skews my judgement when making long term forecasts. Furthermore, it's not often that I'll swing trade these Indices because again, my familiarity with them causes me to cut positions too early for the wrong reasons, i.e I'm so used to their constant twists and turns, I'll often exit a swing trade with a view to