I'm somewhat late posting details of this trade as it was entered by an electronic limit order at a time where I had no internet connection to tweet it live, although details of the trade possibility were posted on the ADVFN forum in advance.
In short, here is what attracted me to this trade, entered at 1.4260:
Firstly an update to my previous post where I cited GBP:NZD as the favoured swing trade from my watch list. Yet again it performed as expected but yet again I didn't enter the trade due to my focus being elsewhere. However, it may not be over for that pair and I do continue to watch it in case it develops into a larger and more sustained move down but clearly the safest entry point for such a move has now passed. If you took the trade yourself than a trailing stop would probably be a sensible precaution maybe 200 to 250 points above the current print of 1.9745
As you'll remember in my previous post of 2 Weeks ago I gave details of 5 currency pairs each demonstrating early stages of set-ups I tend to follow before entering a trade.
As things stand I've not entered trades in any of them as yet. For one of them I missed the chance as the move began overnight therefore making the risk/reward ratio a little less favourable, one I forgot about, one didn't play out as expected, one still hasn't finished the set-up and one is very close to decision making time.
An unreliable internet connection has kept me from Trading for yet another Week but suddenly today its started working fine again despite no work being carried out on my line. In view of the Weeks of torrential rain followed by a single sunny and very windy day one can only assume the problems could be weather related.
One of the most common subjects I'm emailed about is that of creating a system to notify readers immediately when I enter a trade.
I've started the Year with a tough bout of man-flu which again has kept me from spending anything other than brief moments at the trading screen. As much as I strive to post trade entries live I just couldn't manage it on the blog for the current and only open trade although if you read my ADVFN forum I did manage a brief post there at the trade inception.
The trade in question is a EUR:AUD swing short from resistance opened during the evening of 7th January from 1.5269. The initial target was the 1.5000 area marked by the previous swing high on the Daily chart which could become support for the current correction but since entering the moving averages have risen possibly suggesting price wont go as low as I initially hoped.
As the Week started with uncertainty over the debt ceiling situation I chose to have a lazy Week to avoid jumping into trades I may regret! Of course this was despite the debt ceiling conclusion being pretty predictable.
The DAX swing long is still running, showing circa 380 pips profit based on current futures pricing.
Whilst I didn't swing trade the last Week I have had my eye on a few charts so here's a brief run through of a couple of the more interesting ones:
Having closed the previous EUR:AUD swing short for a quick profit the time has come to take another look whilst price continues to struggle against Daily resistance.
The MACD negative divergence has now confirmed itself and price breaks above the 1.4270 level appear to attract selling pressure. I was so close to entering short last night but at that time price was above 1.4270 and looking lively so the decision was made to wait until today. Price did drift lower overnight and my entry wasn't at the best possible levels but it turned out to be good enough.
EUR:AUD has had some interesting moves over the last couple of Years, some of which were technically quite simple to catch and resulted in significant moves.
The Daily chart below shows historic analysis that I applied to the chart before trading it and you can see that 4 horizontal lines and 2 vertical lines was all it took!
To explain further you can see that between October 2010 and December 2011 price remained range bound in the top left of the chart. When it eventually broke down from this range I made the decision not to trade it until price retested the range. After quite a long wait the re-test came in May 2012 as defined by the first red circle. I call such set-ups "Box Trades" simply because price has retested the annotated box that previously contained price before it broke down.