Another quiet Week where I found it difficult to spot any high probability set-ups although there were and still are a few I keep going back to.
The AUD:NZD swing long was stopped out on Wednesday for a 180 pip loss. Within hours I became convinced it was going to rebound having taken mine and probably many other stop losses at the max-pain threshold, so I've actually re-entered the trade from 1.1895 and the trade goes into the Weekend showing a 158 pip profit. Defining an upside target is a little tough because its still hard to tell whether this is just a retrace within an ongoing down trend or whether a larger scale reversal is taking place. For now I'd probably guess at the former so the key here is to watch the moving averages for signs of them offering support or resistance and also for signs of them turning up.
Following overnight news that RBNZ have been selling NZD due to their belief its over-valued with a promise to continue intervention as necessary, I decided to take a closer look.
When trading this pair I find MACD very helpful. With regards to the long side, I would analyse as follows.
The Weekly candle is up against the 20 MA, quite a common retrace level in a Weekly trend. Also, my downside target of 1.71 hasn't been achieved yet so I'm not convinced a long term low is in place, but a medium term one could well be.
The first trading decision I made this Week has constantly haunted me since. After 2 Weeks sitting in the NZD:CHF swing long with no results to speak of I decided enough was enough and set the stop loss to break-even. That decision was made around 5 hours before it made a bee-line for my stop loss and then followed it off with a huge rally, the rally I'd given up waiting for. So frustrating!
Unfortunately I'm too late posting this analysis because much of the shorter term move I was looking for took place before I had chance to write about it.
EUR:USD has been on the watch list ahead of a potential swing long for some Weeks now with an ideal long entry to be taken on a retest of 1.3000 from above following a rally from support in the 1.2750 region.
Ok, I admit, I'm jumping at straws here. Just can't see anything ripe for a trade right now and whilst flicking through the chart list this one stuck out.
Can a triangle back test on this large scale be valid as a technical trade?
Whatever may happen, it does look interesting:
Not sure if I'm interested in trading this just yet but as EUR:USD bounced strongly from support I think its worth keeping an eye on to monitor if/when support is retested.
The situation is slightly complicated by the fact that I have Support in 2 different places depending on the time frame you look at, so I'll detail both scenarios before throwing a spanner in the works with a 3rd Scenario!
Just flicking through the charts tonight and I happened to notice the Euro is at or very near some major long term resistance levels across nearly all its pairs.
On its own this scenario is no guarantee of a reversal but its a solid sign that there will likely be some good trades from most of these charts sometime in the near future. Whether those trades are on the long side following breakouts or on the short side following confirmation of price rejection is unclear at the moment so the key is to watch for clues ahead of trading the strongest/weakest one of the lot. EUR:NZD isn't pictured here as it's arguable whether its currently at resistance but it could be the pair to watch for clues because EUR is generally its weakest against the NZD so a break down would be accelerated on this pair, whilst a break up could be a great indicator of Euro strength ahead of entering a long Euro position on one of the pairs listed below.
Only the one swing trade taken this Week, and exited 24 hours later.
That was the EUR:USD long, the analysis behind which can be found in this post.
It rallied almost straight away after entering and 24 hours later price was rejected from quite strong resistance at the top of the recent range, which happened to coincide with the triangle I'd marked out in the previous analysis.