The Week began with the following thoughts, which were posted on my ADVFN forum:
FTSE / DOW to look for long opportunities over the next day or 2.
EUR:GBP as a potential swing short.
Some Yen Pairs nearing previous swing highs in long term Macro down trends.
Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends.
Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult.
There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon
It would be fair to say that the last couple of Months have offered really tough conditions for swing trading, particularly because the day to day chop seen on many markets have made the line between overbought and oversold conditions quite difficult to define due to flat-lining indicators.
As the heading suggests, I've taken a few new trades this Week, but have struggled or am struggling with all of them. It's one of those Weeks where I'm left wondering if Markets are just completely random and only a look at previous trading results remind me that TA must play a major part!
I came into the Week with one open trade, an AUD:CAD short, but on Monday my Day Trading system gave a long signal on the 5 minute time frame, so I decided to
As there's no new set-ups ready for entry right now (including AUD:CAD detailed in the previous post which still awaits confirmation), I thought I'd have a look through some old trades and found something interesting with EUR:AUD.
It was originally taken (see post here) as a "Box Trade" short. Box Trades are fairly rare set-ups, but thus far every one that I've taken has been a success.
With EUR:AUD I covered the position at the 61.8% fib (circled) which seemed sensible at the time but re-visiting the chart and I realise maybe
Hope your Week is going better than mine! Though my Swing Trades are all looking good and even the DOW swing short is still showing good profits despite this Week's 500 point rise, the 2 day trades I entered today left a lot to be desired!
So I've had a scan through my watchlist and the following charts define those I consider most likely
As you know, half of last Week's EUR:AUD short was covered ahead of a bullish set-up on shorter time frames that could lead to a 2nd short entry.
On 4 hourly and Daily time frames, the areas detailed in the following charts show levels where resistance should be prevalent if the move down is to resume.