GBP

Just a quick post to say following on from previous GBP:CAD analysis I've entered a swing long position with stop loss set on a Daily close below this Week's low. I don't normally buy break-outs like this generally preferring to buy a back test of the break-out level but I miss so many trades with that strategy that I've just bit the bullet and entered long. After all, price has just broken out to 3 Year highs and it would be incredibly unfortunate if I've bought the top!

GBP:CAD is currently trading in the middle of its long term trading range but has shown some potential for a possible move from here to the top of its trading range which may provide a short term swing long set-up. The 4 Hourly chart shows the recent leg down to have found support at the 61.8% fib retrace from the last major swing low to the recent swing high. For a potential long entry this would likely become the area where stop loss positioning should be considered.

One new swing trade was taken this Week in the form of a EUR:AUD Swing short. In view of the risk attached due to there being very little technical confirmation that I'd be able to pull the trade off, I decided to close it and go flat into the Weekend with a view to re-opening it next Week when further confirmation is in place. The trade delivered 120 pips profit in less than 18 hours so the result was quite satisfying. If and when this trade is re-entered I'll post details in the comments section under the relevant supporting post.

Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither  are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.

Following overnight news that RBNZ have been selling NZD due to their belief its over-valued with a promise to continue intervention as necessary, I decided to take a closer look.

GBP:NZD

When trading this pair I find MACD very helpful. With regards to the long side, I would analyse as follows. Cons: The Weekly candle is up against the 20 MA, quite a common retrace level in a Weekly trend. Also, my downside target of 1.71 hasn't been achieved yet so I'm not convinced a long term low is in place, but a medium term one could well be.

Despite spending most of the Week in bed with the Flu, a couple of set-ups did trigger entries whilst one of my most anticipated set-ups slipped me by. As you'll know from previous posts, SPX has achieved the top of the multi-year megaphone pattern. On its own a megaphone top pattern is not reliable, and there isn't anything else really supporting it (fundamentals aside of course), but in my efforts to be a hero I took the trade anyway entering short at 1596. On the basis that a pattern shown on the Monthly chart is likely to offer a multitude of opportunities for entries, I covered half the position 24 hours later for 14 points which isn't a bad profit for an SPX trade over such a short period and couldn't be ignored. The plan is to keep entering the trade at this perceived resistance, taking profits when they become available but leaving half the trade to run at all times until the set-up either pays off, or fails and proves the set-up wrong.

This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I've carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I've still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management. Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I'll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I'll just monitor it on a day by day basis.

Following previous GBP:CAD analysis today I entered a swing long position from support. To understand the history behind this position you'll need to read this post  and this follow up post. I still believe we'll see an eventual break down through the support thats held GBP:CADs trading range over the last 3 Years, however as I pointed out before, another test of major support was very likely due to the lack of consolidation following the previous test.