Because the vast majority of my recent trading has been either Day Trades or trades lasting just a Day or 2, I've not posted details of them on here as they don't fit within the purpose of the blog, and that is to concentrate on longer term swing trades that don't require constant management and can significantly reduce the length of time required at the screen.
GBP:NZD was a potential swing long candidate a couple of Months back and although it rebounded from my "line in the sand" support, it sliced through some quite strong supports on it's journey there so I gave it a miss.
One of those failed "supports" was in the 1.9510 area and you can see from the chart below that it failed to provide support in July and again in August.
Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends.
Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult.
There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon
It's been so long since entering the GBP:USD long that the comments beneath the post detailing the entry have expired so the only way to share my reasoning for the exit of the trade is through a new post.
Over recent Week's Cable has been trading a relatively large range of approximately 400 pips. The overall trend on the Weekly chart is down, but on smaller time frames there is no trend at the moment, only a range that will eventually break into a trend.
Whilst price is trading in a range it's relatively common for traders to make a decision as to the outcome of that range, but in reality the range itself is proof that there is indecision within the Market. The only way to capitalise on that indecision is to ignore any overall directional bias and play the range as it forms.
In the case of GBP:USD on shorter time frames that range has run a sequence of marginally higher lows whilst resistance has been repeatedly found at 1.5736 region. This could be indicative of an ascending triangle formation or looking at the chart the possibility of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern, but in reality these potentially bullish patterns can fall apart through time decay.
Therefore, the long position I've taken from
Unfortunately yet another empty Week from a Swing Trading perspective!
I've no idea whether it's my (incorrect) interpretation of what I'm seeing in the Markets, or whether all Markets are setting up for huge volatility, but this last couple of Months has not offered anything that fit my usual swing strategies.
Considering that for the last couple of Years I've averaged
I've been told off through a couple of recent comments about the lack of updates to the site! It's certainly true that I've missed out on a couple of great trading set-ups that I've not had chance to post nor enter simply due to lack of time to spend at the screen and updating the site.
The original plan for the site was to use the time I'd have otherwise spent day trading on updating the site and analysing prospective swing trades but for the last couple of Months I've barely been doing either of those things due to commitments elsewhere.