General

As the Week started with uncertainty over the debt ceiling situation I chose to have a lazy Week to avoid jumping into trades I may regret! Of course this was despite the debt ceiling conclusion being pretty predictable. The DAX swing long is still running, showing circa 380 pips profit based on current futures pricing. Whilst I didn't swing trade the last Week I have had my eye on a few charts so here's a brief run through of a couple of the more interesting ones:

With potential volatility likely across most markets over the U.S debt ceiling farce I've avoided taking any new swing trades and spent the Week day trading Indices. The DAX swing long survived the correction but its yet to be seen whether the current rally will run to new highs or, as I suspect, a lower high. Despite the trade being taken across analysis from the Monthly and Weekly time frames, I think if we see a lower high on the Daily chart it would be sensible to bank profits and close the trade. The trade went into the Weekend showing 270 points profit, but who knows what will happen when futures open tonight. So far based on currency futures its a bit of a mixed bag, but I think most indicators are pointing towards a bit of a gap down tonight.

As the Week began I felt quite content in continuing to run both GBP:CAD and DAX swing long trades but the short term picture for both has changed, drastically so for GBP:CAD. Being committed elsewhere on Friday I didn't even log into my account so you can imagine the shock when I logged in after market close to see GBP:CAD that had been showing a +300 pip profit now showing a -160 pip loss! It's unbelievable how much damage can be done to a great trade in a single day, and I absolutely didn't see it coming.

Following my 3 Week break I feel I'm trading at quite a comfortable and relaxed pace continuing to hold the DAX and GBP:CAD swing long positions. DAX as with other indices seems to be going through a correction at present but its quite clear DAX remains one of the strongest Indices. As you know, my system shorted FTSE back in May on the basis a medium to long term top may be in place. Bearing this in mind it could turn out the DAX Monthly break-out candle is little more than a fake-out and I am concerned that the huge profits seen on that trade will turn to dust, but I'm quite determined to stick to the plan on this one unless I see a real break-down in the technicals.

It's been one Week since restarting trading and the very first trade I opened got off to a brilliant start. The DAX long was taken on Friday 13th of all dates but got off to a great start by rallying 300 points within 4 trading days. It was very tempting to just bank that profit and I do fear my own judgement in being able to hold that trade as originally intended. As a reminder the plan was/is to hold it based on the Monthly and Weekly charts as opposed to smaller time frames and I've never based a trade on such time scales before.

Having briefly made 3 Year lows back in March (which I actually bought and got stopped out at the lowest pip), GBP:CAD has now broken 3 Year highs. So the question needs to be asked; Are we about to see a huge rally or will resistance send the pair back into the long term trading range? Having been wrong around 50% of the time on this pair I'm probably not qualified to answer, however I put the question to members of my ADVFN forum where the majority believed price would sell off back into the long term range.

Sadly other commitments have prevented me from trading again this Week and although I cast an occasional eye over the charts in the hope of finding a ripe set-up to trade, I've not really seen anything convincing. I keep going over a few of the Yen and USD based charts but for now most remain within the confines of previous trading ranges making a directional call outside of those ranges quite difficult to make. Unsure if its just my state of mind or whether others are observing the same, but I've found most of the trade-able moves over the last few Months have come from relatively weak technical set-ups and arising from low volume.