General

As you can probably tell based on the mid-Week updates to the blog, my focus this Week was on day trading the volatility across Indices and this delivered some quite profitable trades. Although EUR:USD remained top of the watch list for a swing trade on the long side, I found it quite difficult to find a comfortable entry and in the event EUR:USD rallied quite hard albeit through some sudden bursts each of which lasting no more than a few hours. This made the potential swing quite difficult to catch and therefore the trade was missed. EUR:USD now lies bang on resistance so it will remain on the watch-list to see how it copes and from there I can make a decision as to whether I'll trade it, and whether it will be on the long or short side.

Another quiet Week where I found it difficult to spot any high probability set-ups although there were and still are a few I keep going back to. The AUD:NZD swing long was stopped out on Wednesday for a 180 pip loss. Within hours I became convinced it was going to rebound having taken mine and probably many other stop losses at the max-pain threshold, so I've actually re-entered the trade from 1.1895 and the trade goes into the Weekend showing a 158 pip profit. Defining an upside target is a little tough because its still hard to tell whether this is just a retrace within an ongoing down trend or whether  a larger scale reversal is taking place. For now I'd probably guess at the former so the key here is to watch the moving averages for signs of them offering support or resistance and also for signs of them turning up.

We've gone from watching paint dry to seeing quite a bit of volatility over a very short time frame and therefore no new swing trades have been taken, rather the environment has been more suited to day trading albeit with small stakes and wide stops. My call for retraces across AUD pairs failed quite spectacularly and none of the pairs analysed last Week showed any signs of reversing throughout this Week and I'm currently paying for that with the AUD:NZD swing long teetering near its stop loss levels, currently showing a 120 pip loss.

It has been a Week since my last Blog post and  the drop in traffic to the site after 3 or 4 days without an update is fairly significant, but please remember, I only want to talk about stuff that's worth talking about with a view to an imminent trade. I go through many charts each day and do miss a fair few set-ups that turn out to be great ones but don't see a lot of point in talking about great trading set-ups unless I'm prepared to put my own money on them. I'd rather do this than flood the site with advice or recommendations that I simply don't feel absolutely confident about  investing my own money into.

Having started the Week with absolutely no idea how things were likely to pan out it seems surprising that I've now got a bulging watch list! Strange how it works out. Other than the NZD pairs discussed earlier in the Week, nothing is quite ready to talk about in detail just yet but I continue to watch. Yen pairs were something I wanted to stay away from but in hindsight I've probably been mad to ignore them. I mean, BOJ are pumping $80 billion worth of QE each Month and will continue to do so for as long as it takes to boost their flat economy. This is probably something that shouldn't be ignored although my concern at the time was that it broke G7 rules but if anything the G7 are supporting it.

It's been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes. After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I've since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can be found here.