Following my earlier post updating on recent trading I thought I'd post a quick snap shot of the USD:JPY channel back test I'm waiting for.
Its not too often I post such set-ups too far in advance because there simply isn't enough on the chart at this early stage to support the trade idea but in short I'm simply looking to see how price reacts if and when it reaches the underside of the old channel with a view to entering a swing short.
What you'll often see on such set-ups is a pip-perfect back test that instantly finds sellers, but some days later price will rally again and actually briefly break back inside the channel stopping out all those early positions. It is after this second back test that the real sell off will begin.
Because the vast majority of my recent trading has been either Day Trades or trades lasting just a Day or 2, I've not posted details of them on here as they don't fit within the purpose of the blog, and that is to concentrate on longer term swing trades that don't require constant management and can significantly reduce the length of time required at the screen.
Having scanned through the charts tonight there's a number of charts at inflection points but nothing that I could deem as high probability, or at least high probability with minimal potential draw-down.
CAD JPY is one of the more interesting FX pairs but comes with a warning; Different time frames are showing potentially different outcomes, but I do think it's possible there's a short term trade coming up.
As you may know, CAD:JPY has been my favoured Yen trade on the short side recently based on good quality technical set-ups but in actual fact, the Austrailian Dollar has been the weaker currency against the Yen and therefore this might be where we should be focussing our attention.
I'm really sorry to say that yet another Week has passed with very little in the way of updates from me. I'm starting to become unsure as to why I'm not seeing the trading opportunities that were plentiful throughout January to March. I've started to question whether I'm lacking in confidence, missing good set-ups, or there just isn't anything that can be deemed high probability. There have been a lot of moves that looked obvious after the event, but picking the good ones before the event has been particularly difficult and hence I've barely collected any pips all Month.
Only 3 trades were taken over the last Week, a DOW short from 13,010 which wasn't intended to be a swing trade but ended up as a 3 day hold and delivered a 186 points profit, a Cable short that was stopped out for a 35 pip loss, and finally another attempt at shorting CAD:JPY which has remained a
As discussed in the Trading Round-Up for Last Week I've got no high probability swing set-ups on the radar right now but promised to talk about a couple of things I'm watching that could offer some shorter term trades and may eventually become solid swing trading candidates.
Having gone over the watch list a number of times tonight, there's almost nothing that can be traded with confidence without further price action to finalise some of the ongoing Swing set-ups.
You may recall that I've been trading the long side of GBP:NZD with success and
A couple of Week's back I posted details of CHF:JPY as being a potential swing long entry as the daily 200 MA offered support offering an initial upside target of 91.37 and a break beyond that would provide fresh air through to 94.44
That post can be found here.
It was my intention to talk in further detail with regards to the upside potential on CHF:JPY over the Weekend but unfortunately family circumstances prevented me from doing so.
So, as a late update to the situation here's a quick chart showing