NZD

AUD NZD brings back some good memories of the earliest days of this blog! At the time I saw the upside potential on this pair there wasn't much else around in the way of high probability trades. Even this swing long was a little nerve racking early on as it just took so much time to do anything, only being kept in the trade by the fact that I was getting paid positive interest due to the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.

Here is a really nice short set-up on NZDUSD that I have found. The first chart shows confluence of: 1) A previous area of support and resistance. 2) The 55 and 200 ema’s. 3) 38.2 % fib retracement from the peak printed on August 1st. 4) 50% fib retracement from the peak printed on August 31st. 5) 0.8000 round number.

I've opened a highly speculative short on NZD CHF today. I've traded the short side of this pair quite successfully over the last year but price is now at a level where it needs to decide which way it's going to go. There is no mistaking the fact that the weekly trend is down and has been for some time. The huge rally we've seen certainly looks like a convincing trend change on the daily chart but the bigger Weekly and Monthly picture is still down, therefore, as smaller time frames are looking overbought, I've entered a small short at the weekly 200MA in expectation of a pull back to correct these overbought conditions.