The continually developing chart patterns of GBP:NZD have had me truly fascinated over the last couple of Months as bearish patterns develop within bullish themes and visa versa. Despite this there have been some very trade-able moves offering a large number of pips in a short time....albeit with a sizeable element of risk attached!
AUD NZD brings back some good memories of the earliest days of this blog! At the time I saw the upside potential on this pair there wasn't much else around in the way of high probability trades. Even this swing long was a little nerve racking early on as it just took so much time to do anything, only being kept in the trade by the fact that I was getting paid positive interest due to the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.
Whilst we are seeing a fair amount of intraday volatility and little in the way of solid long term trending I'm going to focus my TA on a shorter term basis sharing a few possibilities for the week ahead.
Daily and Weekly chart's are
It's not the best looking Swing Short Set-Up and there are risks to this trade, but it's one of the better looking chart's at this precise moment in time so I've decided it's a risk worth taking.
NZD:CHF was on my Watchlist as a possibility for a long entry, but it's failure to show strength combined with
Here is a really nice short set-up on NZDUSD that I have found.
The first chart shows confluence of:
1) A previous area of support and resistance.
2) The 55 and 200 ema’s.
3) 38.2 % fib retracement from the peak printed on August 1st.
4) 50% fib retracement from the peak printed on August 31st.
5) 0.8000 round number.
As we are still in a situation where there remains a lack of very high probability trades that are both ripe and imminent, I'm going to run through the main part of my watchlist showing what I'm looking at right now, why I'm looking at it, and detailing in pictures the simplicity of the type of trading set-ups I trade.
It's been a manic week in the markets and a quiet week on the blog, so why's that?
Well, day trades aside I've been sitting on my hands because all open positions were performing without the need for attention and there's presently nothing new on the watchlist.
I've opened a highly speculative short on NZD CHF today.
I've traded the short side of this pair quite successfully over the last year but price is now at a level where it needs to decide which way it's going to go.
There is no mistaking the fact that the weekly trend is down and has been for some time. The huge rally we've seen certainly looks like a convincing trend change on the daily chart but the bigger Weekly and Monthly picture is still down, therefore, as smaller time frames are looking overbought, I've entered a small short at the weekly 200MA in expectation of a pull back to correct these overbought conditions.