Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.
Another quiet Week where I found it difficult to spot any high probability set-ups although there were and still are a few I keep going back to.
The AUD:NZD swing long was stopped out on Wednesday for a 180 pip loss. Within hours I became convinced it was going to rebound having taken mine and probably many other stop losses at the max-pain threshold, so I've actually re-entered the trade from 1.1895 and the trade goes into the Weekend showing a 158 pip profit. Defining an upside target is a little tough because its still hard to tell whether this is just a retrace within an ongoing down trend or whether a larger scale reversal is taking place. For now I'd probably guess at the former so the key here is to watch the moving averages for signs of them offering support or resistance and also for signs of them turning up.
It's been an interesting Week that has shown a number of potential medium term trend changes.
After shorting SPX at 1596 in a speculative manner based on that huge multi-Month Megaphone top pattern I've since realised there may be more to this set-up than first anticipated. The original analysis can be found here.
Unfortunately I'm too late posting this analysis because much of the shorter term move I was looking for took place before I had chance to write about it.
EUR:USD has been on the watch list ahead of a potential swing long for some Weeks now with an ideal long entry to be taken on a retest of 1.3000 from above following a rally from support in the 1.2750 region.
Despite spending most of the Week in bed with the Flu, a couple of set-ups did trigger entries whilst one of my most anticipated set-ups slipped me by.
As you'll know from previous posts, SPXhas achieved the top of the multi-year megaphone pattern. On its own a megaphone top pattern is not reliable, and there isn't anything else really supporting it (fundamentals aside of course), but in my efforts to be a hero I took the trade anyway entering short at 1596. On the basis that a pattern shown on the Monthly chart is likely to offer a multitude of opportunities for entries, I covered half the position 24 hours later for 14 points which isn't a bad profit for an SPX trade over such a short period and couldn't be ignored. The plan is to keep entering the trade at this perceived resistance, taking profits when they become available but leaving half the trade to run at all times until the set-up either pays off, or fails and proves the set-up wrong.
Throughout this Week I've stood by the notion that Indices may be near to forming a top ahead of a decent correction. Although that's speculation I remain committed to monitoring charts ahead of the trading possibility that will follow.
The USD:CHF swing long remains intact but more interesting than the trade itself is the fact that the USD remained strong in general against some of the large one day rallies we've seen across Indices - another potential market topping sign.
As you will know from previous posts I've been following and trading USD:CHF a fair bit recently.
The previous Swing long detailed hereand analysed here was closed out due to the lack of evidence that the upside move could gain further traction. Price did chop around a bit after closing that position, but ultimately did continue the upside move.
You may remember the recent USD:CHF analysis where I'd been tempted with a swing long position but didn't get a chance to enter the trade at my ideal risk/reward levels due to other commitments.
Since then I've continued to watch it develop as price retraced 61% of the move. The question is, is USD:CHF still a viable swing long?