03 Feb GBP CHF Analysis For New Swing Long Entry 3rd February 2012
I’ve entered a GBP:CHF Swing Long Position today based not on my system but through seemingly bullish Technical’s on most time frames. I prefer to take swing long entries from levels that have proven themselves as support but I’ve not done that in the case of GBP CHF which put’s me slightly outside of my comfort zone but does still allow for tight stop losses were I to choose a low risk option for this trade. Firstly it’s the 4 hourly chart that attracted my attention: A clear breakout of the down trend, a successful retest of that down trend, 20, 50 and 100 MA support and even if the trade was to fail, it’s a very high probability that the 200 MA will receive a visit before continuation of a possible down trend, so price action at the 200 MA will be a very important gauge of this trade’s sustainability:
A quick look at the Hourly chart and again we can see that all Moving Averages are pointing the right direction, all have offered support and the price pattern has an appearance of an Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom. In the early part of this trade, four 1 hourly closes beneath that (green) 200 MA will probably have me heading to the exit button:
A quick look at the daily chart shows the up trend has been reasonably consistent in finding support at various levels (circled) and yes, I was planning on buying that first back test but SNB got there first! We could have an argument that the up trend is looking a little tired, but we could also argue that it’s in the process of breaking out of a bullish consolidation. It’s a little more difficult to be confident on this time frame but it’s quite clear that a minimum upside target would be a double top, followed by the next major resistance around 700 pips North of the current price level. Note the unfilled gap at 1.4182. Any signs of that gap becoming a possible target and I’m abandoning the trade:
Finally, this is the time frame that concerns me the most, and in some respect it’s the most important time frame when planning to hold a long term swing trade. Price has a marginal appearance of rolling over, and MACD has a major appearance of rolling over. MACD may cross negatively but it is also common to see many Months of negative divergence before a rally peter’s out. Nonetheless, not seeing confirmation on this time frame does concern me a little, so I will be monitoring the trade intraday initially until I can get the stop loss to break-even or get out with minimal loss:
So to conclude, the risk of failure is certainly visible but the hourly and 4 hourly time frames should be very quick to confirm failure which will mean minimal loss. Beyond that and if I can get stop losses to breakeven over the course of the next Week, then the risk of failure wont bother me so much – There’s plenty more trades out there if this one fails, and Capital preservation must come first even if you exit a trade to hastily.
Fundamentally, whoever is shorting EUR:CHF are effectively seeing how far they can push SNB into a reaction. If SNB live up to their promise, they will intervene at EUR:CHF sub 1.20 which would add favour to this GBP:CHF trade.