09 Mar Gold, EUR:USD And USD:CHF Analysis; 10th March 2014
Firstly an update to my previous post where I cited GBP:NZD as the favoured swing trade from my watch list. Yet again it performed as expected but yet again I didn’t enter the trade due to my focus being elsewhere. However, it may not be over for that pair and I do continue to watch it in case it develops into a larger and more sustained move down but clearly the safest entry point for such a move has now passed. If you took the trade yourself than a trailing stop would probably be a sensible precaution maybe 200 to 250 points above the current print of 1.9745
Tonight I’ve been studying some of the USD pairs with the conclusion that the long term decline in the USD is quite probably far from over. The favoured chart at present to support this scenario is USD:CHF. From a technical aspect there isn’t a lot to be said about this chart, only that shorting lower swing highs over the last 12 Years would have consistently delivered significant profits and there’s nothing on the chart just yet to suggest that trend has changed just yet other than the fact the 2011 low is visually much different to all the previous lows so it might be optimistic to look for a break of that low in the medium term, but a move to the 0.8557 region marked by the line on this chart is a very likely target. Ideally risk vs reward would be improved if we get a small rally from current levels to enable a short from higher levels somwhere between here and the previous swing high:
For EUR:USD I still stick to my long term target of an attack on the 1.4000 area of resistance. Although I didn’t enter the previously planned swing long from the recent swing low, there’s probably still room to enter long positions targeting 1.4000 and once price does get there, a retrace back down to the green 200 MA is likely to follow (bearing in mind the 200 MA will be higher up by then, maybe in the 1.3750 region).
This final chart is another simple one but probably not one that I’ll trade. Only to say I don’t think Golds decline is completely over and it may be worth watching for signs of the next swing high with a view to entering short to either re-test the previous lows or to marginally break them targeting the 61.8% fib level marked on the chart:
I think the analysis in these charts combined with the ongoing moves from the charts in the previous post offer some of the better trading opportunities currently available across all FX pairs with the odds remaining that 2/3 of them should deliver solid results.