Ongoing USD:CHF Analysis For Swing Long Re-Entry; 25th February 2013

Ongoing USD:CHF Analysis For Swing Long Re-Entry; 25th February 2013

As you will know from previous posts I’ve been following and trading USD:CHF a fair bit recently.

The previous Swing long detailed here and analysed here was closed out due to the lack of evidence that the upside move could gain further traction. Price did chop around a bit after closing that position, but ultimately did continue the upside move.

As mentioned in the Weekend update I re-entered a long position, initially taken as a short term trade covering 1 to 2 sessions, but on revisiting the chart after today’s activity I’m going to attempt holding out for a little more upside.

The evidence suggesting this move will continue isn’t overwhelming, but with a well defined stop loss level I think its worth pursuing.

The 4 Hourly chart shows that price has tested and found support from all Moving Averages which are all pointing in the right direction, whilst a clean break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level suggests a 100% retracement could be a decent short term target:

USD CHF 4 Hourly 25th Feb 2013

The Daily chart puts price bang on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement following the last major Daily Swing High. Although the long term trend still remains down, I like the fact that the green 200 MA resides close by and could be a target, whilst a break of today’s low makes an excellent short term stop loss level. In fact, today’s low came within 8 pips of my existing 60 point stop loss level of my 0.9293 entry:

USD CHF Daily 25th Feb 2013

I think the key to the success of this trade probably lies with tomorrow and Wednesdays price action. A Daily close below today’s open will concern me, possibly enough to dump the trade, so as things stand, it’s just a case of waiting and seeing.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 00:00h, 05 March

    USD:CHF exceeded my initial target so I continued to hold the position, but looking at the chart now I’m quite unsure as to where its going. I think we are going to see a retrace of this up move but I cannot work out how deep this retrace is likely to go (or even whether there will definitely be a retrace).

    After some thought, I’ve decided I’ll do exactly what I did last time I was in this position with USD:CHF, and that is to close the trade and take the profits.

    Therefore, I’ve closed 90% of the position at 0.9405 taking a profit of +113 pips.
    The final 10% is left to run just to see how it pans out in the longer term.

    I’ll up date the trades log with the overall aggregate profit/loss when I eventually close the final 10% of the trade.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 21:46h, 08 March

    I closed the remaining 10% of the USD:CHF long today for a profit of +226 pips.

    I’ve just noticed thats exactly double the 113 pips taken on the 1st 90%
    At the time of closing the 1st portion, I had no idea which way the market was going to go so as much as I now wish I held onto the whole position, it would have been a bit of a gamble to do so.

    This gives an aggregate points total on the overall trade of +124 points