29 Jan Update To Previous USD:CHF Swing Long Analysis 30th January 2013
You may remember the recent USD:CHF analysis where I’d been tempted with a swing long position but didn’t get a chance to enter the trade at my ideal risk/reward levels due to other commitments.
Since then I’ve continued to watch it develop as price retraced 61% of the move. The question is, is USD:CHF still a viable swing long?
The 4 Hourly chart shows a break out through the old down trend line and now a retest of that same line which happens to coincide with both the 200 MA and the 61.8% retrace of the recent rally.. Although I don’t think the chart looks particularly pretty, if support is to be found, then this is the price area to watch.
MACD doesn’t give a lot away, yes there are higher highs and higher lows, but the current status looks like it could go anywhere:
The Daily chart shows a similar situation. A longer term falling wedge is quite prominent here and by drawing the wedge onto the chart, the price pattern looks quite interesting, what with a couple of supports not much below the current price level which will certainly help with stop loss placement.
But remove those lines and all we have is a down trend which adds to the risk of buying here, but also adds significantly to the potential reward:
Over the next few days I’ll be keeping an eye on this chart with a view to catching early buying opportunities intraday. If the 4 hourly 200 MA lets go, then it might be best avoided until we see a decent break back above it.
For now, it’ll stay on the radar and if I take any positions I’ll update the comments section underneath this post.