Frustrating End To NZD:CHF Swing Long, And DOW Analysis

Frustrating End To NZD:CHF Swing Long, And DOW Analysis

Sometimes the Markets get the better of me and no matter how much I analyse the situation there just doesn’t seem to be an answer that can prevent the same occurrence in the future. Such an occurrence arose today with the NZD:CHF swing long.

This is the 2nd swing long in succession on this pair having taken profits first time round only to see another desirable set-up soon after. Having held this 2nd swing for almost 2 Weeks with absolutely no progress, last night I decided it was time for a closer look. The result of this was to effectively forfeit any further risk by setting the stop loss at break even.

This 5 minute chart tells the story:

NZD CHF 5 min chart 23rd April 2013

Admittedly the stop loss was not set in a calculated way. The chart simply became quite difficult to read and there were a few pieces of evidence suggesting prices would go lower and I reacted by cutting the risk of any loss whilst remaining in the trade to profit from a move higher.

The move higher came today, but unfortunately stopped me out first.

This 4 hourly chart below shows price struggling to gain traction above the 4 Hourly 200 MA with each break out attempt quickly sold off. It was starting to become clear that price was unlikely to break above it convincingly, hence the actions I took to set the stop loss to break even.

NZD CHF 4 hourly 23rd April 2013

Why this morning’s price rebounded in the way it did I have no idea. I genuinely can’t see any solid technical reason behind it although a poster on my ADVFN forum did come up with some analysis proving the incorrect placement of my break-even stop loss. Nonetheless the trade has gone now and I’m not going to chase it, and of course, had it not rebounded as it did I’d have been quite happy with a break-even stop out!

Moving forward here are a couple of DOW charts I’m presently day trading and watching closely for tomorrow.

DOW 4 hourly shows an underside retest of it’s long term trend line going right back to last Year. Historically such trend lines have proved themselves as solid resistance. Difficult to tell if this retest will find sellers or not, but well worth keeping an eye on for a potentially trade-able reversal:

DOW 4 hourly 23rd April 2013

Adding more to the resistance argument is this Hourly chart showing price up against the 61.8% Fibonnaci retracement of the entire correction. Again this is the level where bears need to prove themselves:

DOW Hourly 23rd April 2013

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