13 Mar Mid Week Update And Some More Charts… DOW, AUD:CAD, EUR:NZD, GBP:NZD
Today hasn’t been particularly good to me. All open swing trades are now red!
AUD:NZD was +200 last Week, now showing -35
GBP:NZD was +120 within hours of entering the position, now showing -110
GBP:CHF was +140 when I got up this morning, now showing -45 on rumours of SNB raising the Euro Peg.
Amazing how quickly things can change. GBP:CHF has suprised me the most as it looked incredibly bearish yesterday and I remember thinking it could be one I can now forget about for a Month or 2 as it breaks into a decent down trend. Nothing I saw on the chart could have predicted todays price action, and although it’s my opinion rumour driven price moves usually reverse themselves, I don’t really want to mess around with SNB so will have to decide on whether to cut this position now or wait until tomorrow. I don’t believe the SNB rumour but also don’t fancy being on the wrong side of potential intervention!
Anyway, here’s some charts I’m currently looking at.
DOW
A DOW big green candle like today’s often denotes a genuine breakout from a swing low or a blow off Top. Tomorrows close may give us the answer unless it’s a small doji, in which case we might get another fortnight of pointless chop!
Circled on the chart are the big green candle’s that either started a rally, or ended one:
AUD CAD
Found it’s 200 MA. A few days messing around these levels will probably show some clues as to whether this is a buyable correction low:
But, a quick look at the Weekly chart suggests this could be worth a gamble on the long side. Rising wedges are usually referred to as a bearish pattern, but they aren’t bearish until price confirms it.
GBP NZD
Still stuck in an underwater swing long on this as are a few other traders from the ADVFN forum.
Looking at this chart, I don’t think today is the day to give up on this….
EUR NZD
But before you get too excited about that GBP:NZD support, take a look at this.
A break of this level or certainly a daily close below it will have me very interested in the short side:
mosside vicar
Posted at 22:57h, 15 MarchMost of your winning trades are less than 100 points, therefore a trailing stop once you reach over 100 would be prudent
god bless
Moss
SP500 Weekly forming bearish pattern, looking for | Wall Street Stocks
Posted at 12:45h, 16 March[…] as yet unconfirmed. If it unfolds as expected I am looking for a weekly downswing of 16 weeks.SP500 Weekly chart is forming bearish pattern, as yet unconfirmed. If it unfolds as expected I am lo… WordPress › […]
RS2OOO
Posted at 22:00h, 16 Marchmosside vicar,
Some of those trades didn’t make it into triple digits so they were too young to trail stops whilst some gave doubts over the original analysis so they were cut quickly before those small profits turned into losses.
The decision on how tight to trail stops has to be made on a trade by trade basis as breathing space is required whilst the trade is young and you’ll notice most of the small gains were on trades only lasting a day or 2.
However, the following 2 trades were in triple digit gains at some stage of the trade, and in these cases a trailing stop would have prevented these losses:
USD:CAD (L) 13/02/2012 29/02/2012 -93
GBP:CHF (S) 05/03/2012 13/03/2012 -47
Not so sure about GBP:CHF, but looking at USD:CAD there is no way I should have allowed that to go from +100 to almost -100, so I do need to employ a trailing stop strategy on trades of that nature, and that particular trade was from strong support, but also against the Macro trend. So, you are correct, I need to place a better management strategy to avoid losses such as that one.
This Week's Swing Trading Round-Up And DOW Analysis Re-Visited;17th March 2012
Posted at 14:36h, 17 March[…] trade shorts, place stop losses outside of the upper channel line and trail them:During the Week AUD:CAD became a very attractive swing long candidate as detailed here, but my expectation of a swing low […]
mosside vicar
Posted at 12:26h, 18 Marchthanks for the response RS2000 hope all goes well for you this week
moss
Razor Swing Trader
Posted at 03:35h, 20 MarchWhen will you start trading the AUDUSD like the rest of us?
Cheers
Brent
RS2OOO
Posted at 23:01h, 20 MarchRazor,
I have a bet with someone that AUD:USD will make new all time highs this year. So, on that basis, all of my analysis will just say…. Go Long!
On 2nd thought’s, I’ll bung up an AUD:USD post just for you.
will
Posted at 08:44h, 25 Marchmate do you have a twitter?
RS2OOO
Posted at 18:16h, 25 MarchYes, twitter is http://twitter.com/#!/IndexSwingTrade but I don’t actively place trade notifications on there, all trades are posted live on the ADVFN forum.