Technical Index Trading & Analysis

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  • #3107
    wernluck
    Participant

    bracke
    re Cable.
    Make the plan.Then enter the orders and just leave it!Dont even look.
    The plan will include trade entry/stop loss and profit target.Period!

    Closed my Cable short on test of 23rd Jan lows this afternoon:

    #3108
    bracke
    Participant

    wernluck

    I know! I know!

    “Closed my Cable short on test of 23rd Jan lows this afternoon:”
    ==================================================================

    Now you are being cruel. Don’t you think I’ve suffered enough.

    Oh! the pain!!

    #3109
    wernluck
    Participant

    sorry bracke..
    no more will be mentioned!

    #3110
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    EUR:CADs high today was my short entry point to the exact pip.

    No position taken as I’ve not had chance to look at the markets and hadn’t set a limit order as I didn’t expect it to get there so quickly.

    Today’s high joins all the previous swing highs on a down trend line – 4 hourly timeframe.

    #3111
    wernluck
    Participant

    RE Eur/Cad
    i cant see a stop to hide behind yet..
    will have to see how price develops.
    On the radar

    #3112
    wernluck
    Participant

    30min Dow
    nice short set up
    the good thing about haveing the median line as a target(if it gats hit!!)is that it
    is sloping down…adding therefore to profit target
    stops could be moved down to just above last wash..or at least to b/e
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 2 months ago by wernluck.
    #3114
    wernluck
    Participant
    #3115
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    That was a great set-up Werny.

    The difficulty in trading it is the immense volatility. Once an entry like that goes 80+ points against you (withing minutes) its difficult to stay focused and believe the trade is going to work out.

    If I’m the only one having difficulty in holding total belief in the outcome of a given trade I’d be surprised. Even at small £2 per point when the trade is £200 down within a short period I’m eventually grateful to get out unscathed, thus not holding through for the full move.

    #3116
    wernluck
    Participant

    RS
    “The difficulty in trading it is the immense volatility…..”

    the trade set up was at the red circle..
    stops were about 65 pips.When people get caught on the wrong side as in the first blue wash,that is what i really like!
    You know where the bodies are buried 🙂

    reward around 190 pips and rising(with the falling median line)

    As for the outcome of the trade,i am never really confident of it working.But never really unduly pessimistic!

    Also what i like about the PF was the way that price after the C pivot was made.
    That gave me more confidence that i had the frequency of price right(or the slope of the fork)

    The second wash(intraswing wash)during yesterdays session

    #3117
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Wern,

    That blue wash looked like it meant business as it actually happened.

    The rally up to that point lasted 1 hour and 15 minutes with the DOW moving up by 150 points. Only 22 of the 75 1 minute candles closed red! In the last 15 minutes only 2 of the 15 1 minute candles closed red.

    Holding short whilst screen watching that move would have been mental torture, even though there was no technical reason to support exiting the trade. (A few points higher and there would have been).

    #3118
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Of the last 20 times SPX has closed red 2 Months in a row, 16 times that low was taken out the following Month.

    i.e, 80% chance of a lower low ahead. (80% is exceptionally high when looking at periods of “Months” rather than “days”).

    #3119
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Incredible to think over 3 years of price action on the hourly time frame fits into a pip perfect parallel channel:

    DOW Hourly 3 yr channel 1.2.2015.png photo DOWHourly3yrchannel122015_zps357a0027.png

    From experience (as opposed to proper statistics) I’d say there’s good chance of the lower channel line being re-tested. A 3rd retest is also very likely to break marginally below the channel line before a snap back rally back towards the middle of the channel.

    It would probably be more sensible to buy Put options for this as opposed to trying to spread bet it.

    #3120
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    GMT CO Monday 2nd February Expected Previous
    1330 US Personal Income 0.2% 0.4%
    1330 US Personal Spending -0.2% 0.6%
    1500 US ISM Manufacturing 54.5 55.5

    #3121
    wernluck
    Participant

    So RS
    were you tempted by Eur/Cad?
    I saw it come back to test the recent high…

    #3122
    bracke
    Participant
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