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  • #3141
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    DOW down trend line on the 4 hourly futures chart:

    DOW downtrend line 4th Feb 2015 photo DOWdowntrendline4thFeb2015_zps90bd9b8d.png

    #3142
    georgeski
    Participant

    Yes it’s a bit odd at the moment the DOW chartwise looks like it could fall but the FTSE looks like it needs to go higher. The low oil price is the only thing stopping it.

    Oil has dropped back a bit with the US stockpile figure so it may be enough to stop it going for new high’s.

    #3143
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Following today’s settlement Oil is down 8% today according to Talking-Forex. Although my chart shows -6%

    Of all Indices DOW does look weaker than the rest.

    I believe DOW leads U.S Indices but I also believe FTSE is the Canary for all major Indices.

    Still, for the time being, 6875 region is still major resistance for FTSE until proven otherwise, its only that after so many attempts to break it, surely it will succeed eventually.

    17,754 is the precise down trend line on DOW. Will be interesting to see what happens when price gets there. Again, that is resistance until proven otherwise and has to be worth a short with very tight stop.

    #3144
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    DOW just broke through.

    Scalped a short on the initial touch and took 10 points in around 10 seconds, then scalped the 2nd touch and it broke through so I instantly covered.

    It should come back down to re-test the line, if not in the next 30 mins, sometime overnight. That said, I’ve seen a few of these types of DOW breakouts over the last year that don’t come to re-test, but they always used to.

    #3145
    georgeski
    Participant

    Nice

    #3146
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Looks to have been a fake-out thus far!

    #3147
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Long 17,643 on ECB news

    #3148
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Closed that trade for +10

    Was expecting a big spike up, but nothing happened.

    #3149
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Wont be putting FTSE stops at B/E now!

    Account has been showing the trade around £120 in profit each time I’ve checked, but now suddenly its underwater.

    The EUR:CHF long has lost all its gains from the last 2 days as well.

    #3150
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    The end result – Break-out was a fake-out leaving trapped bulls.

    DOW trend line failure 4th Feb 2015 photo DOWtrendlinefailure4thFeb2015_zps5e090376.png

    #3151
    georgeski
    Participant

    The news is confusing. The headline is that the ECB is Turning the screw on Greece yet when you read the article from Bloomberg. Yet they have approved the issuance of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to the Greek banking system to cover any liquidity shortfall caused by today’s move. It probably explains the drop(well timed) as it came out about 20 mins before close of Dow.

    #3152
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    The first news was turning the screw on Greece and markets sold off instantly, then the 2nd news was the ELA news which came out bang on 21:01, hence my long taken in anticipation of a huge spike back up. But nothing happened.

    #3153
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Thursday up up 11 of the last 13.

    After today’s close who knows what will happen.

    FTSE and EUR:CHF longs not looking anywhere near as good as they were in mid-afternoon.

    #3154
    hedgehog5
    Participant

    I think the point is that the first piece of news at 20.37 was out of the ECB; but the second piece of news, at 21.01, which ( if i understand it ) is directly contradictory, is “according to a greek banking source”. (The attribution is in the TF feed, but actually i don’t remember hearing it when the audio broke – i could be wrong, though.)

    It seems to me that there was no bounce, RS, because the market didn’t buy it. The greek government is new, so the market hasn’t had time to gain any confidence that they are not going to take their playlist from the hilarious Ukrainian government, who literally seem to just make news up as and when they need it. Because of the timing, the announcement seemed too much like desperate damage limitation.

    I could be wrong, but that’s my 2 cents anyway. BTW: I WAS short, from 17 745, but bailed out at break even. So based on sod’s law that will probably be the top for a while. 🙁

    #3155
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Makes 100% sense hedgehog.

    As for the short – I’d been planning that short for a couple of days and whilst the quick scalps did ok, the break-out looked fierce so I never entered, instead was planning to buy a successful back-test.

    Then within minutes the move was being undone and it was too quick to make a rational trading decision.

    In hindsight the 5 min MACD divergence behind the DOW move was perfect, but it took 10 minutes to validate a short entry, by which time DOW had already lost 100 points meaning 100+ point stop level on a trade with just 15 minutes left in the session.

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