Following today’s settlement Oil is down 8% today according to Talking-Forex. Although my chart shows -6%
Of all Indices DOW does look weaker than the rest.
I believe DOW leads U.S Indices but I also believe FTSE is the Canary for all major Indices.
Still, for the time being, 6875 region is still major resistance for FTSE until proven otherwise, its only that after so many attempts to break it, surely it will succeed eventually.
17,754 is the precise down trend line on DOW. Will be interesting to see what happens when price gets there. Again, that is resistance until proven otherwise and has to be worth a short with very tight stop.
Scalped a short on the initial touch and took 10 points in around 10 seconds, then scalped the 2nd touch and it broke through so I instantly covered.
It should come back down to re-test the line, if not in the next 30 mins, sometime overnight. That said, I’ve seen a few of these types of DOW breakouts over the last year that don’t come to re-test, but they always used to.
The news is confusing. The headline is that the ECB is Turning the screw on Greece yet when you read the article from Bloomberg. Yet they have approved the issuance of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to the Greek banking system to cover any liquidity shortfall caused by today’s move. It probably explains the drop(well timed) as it came out about 20 mins before close of Dow.
The first news was turning the screw on Greece and markets sold off instantly, then the 2nd news was the ELA news which came out bang on 21:01, hence my long taken in anticipation of a huge spike back up. But nothing happened.
I think the point is that the first piece of news at 20.37 was out of the ECB; but the second piece of news, at 21.01, which ( if i understand it ) is directly contradictory, is “according to a greek banking source”. (The attribution is in the TF feed, but actually i don’t remember hearing it when the audio broke – i could be wrong, though.)
It seems to me that there was no bounce, RS, because the market didn’t buy it. The greek government is new, so the market hasn’t had time to gain any confidence that they are not going to take their playlist from the hilarious Ukrainian government, who literally seem to just make news up as and when they need it. Because of the timing, the announcement seemed too much like desperate damage limitation.
I could be wrong, but that’s my 2 cents anyway. BTW: I WAS short, from 17 745, but bailed out at break even. So based on sod’s law that will probably be the top for a while. 🙁
As for the short – I’d been planning that short for a couple of days and whilst the quick scalps did ok, the break-out looked fierce so I never entered, instead was planning to buy a successful back-test.
Then within minutes the move was being undone and it was too quick to make a rational trading decision.
In hindsight the 5 min MACD divergence behind the DOW move was perfect, but it took 10 minutes to validate a short entry, by which time DOW had already lost 100 points meaning 100+ point stop level on a trade with just 15 minutes left in the session.