Based on all previous occasions since 1996 when SPY/DOW cash gapped down for 6 consecutive days during an up trend, there is a 100% chance it will gap up on the 7th day.
i.e Buy SPX now at 2114 or DOW at 18207 and there’s a 100% historic probability that you’ll be showing a profit when the cash session opens at 14:30
There was one occasion where SPY/DOW gapped down for 7 consecutive days but that was in a downtrend thus I’ve not accounted for it.
Hi RS .
Thanks for starting a thread which hopefully will be kept sensible and regulated .
I’m selling dow here 18207 for a monthly view .Orders set again possibly for a final pop today but i think we’re within a week of the top being formed .
I’ve just read your above post and see i’ve taken the opposite trade to yourself RS .I’m taking a monthly view with this one so i won`t worry too much
Your not the only one with a bearish view Alf.
I received some analysis of Indices which was also bearish.
Personally, I’m bullish FTSE above 6900 but will happily change my mind if the market dictates otherwise.
SPY/DOW gapped down today which is the first time ever since 1996 that they’ve gapped down for 7 cash sessions in a row whilst the main trend is up.
Thursday has been up 13 of the last 16 Weeks.
SPY/DOW gapped down again for the 8th consecutive day today which is the first time ever for as far back as my charts go.
I had a good session – short looking for 18,146 to 18,156 which I got.
Then reversed long for a rebound which was much stronger than expected, taking around 45 points in 20 minutes.
Those 2 positions returned +£375, but an optimistic scalp just before the closing bell wiped £32.50 off that!
As 10 consecutive gap downs in a row has never happened, it would be fair to expect a gap up at tomorrows U.S open.
What’s your view on Eur/GBP , RS. It looks like its close to a turning point here .I notice on some charts there`s a gap showing at 68 from 2007 but i’m not sure abouit the validity of it .Always good to have two opinions so thanks for your input
It’s a pity no one posts on advfn anymore. Can the two not exist (no question make because of course they can) ileeman started a new thread and none of you contribute. I’m sure I speak for all who still post there, we miss you sob. Please come back and post there as well.
Here is the thread.
I do not give a monkeys who starts a thread. It’s just a thread! If the thread gets taken over by maniacs that’s another matter. This new one has not been taken over by maniacs so you can post there as well as here. No?
What can I add while i’m here? ermmm nothing really concrete. I have speculated it maybe a few weeks before we see this qe anticipated buying frenzy taper off a bit.
I’d like to know what’s going on really. Where’s all this qe money supposed to be going, what’s it supposed to achieve? Wasn’t it just some knee jerk response to something that eveyone’s now completely forgotten about?
At the time it was; ohh Marios got to deliver or else. Now it’s all old news and you look back and see it for what it is/was. An excuse to bail out banks. A puff of nothing at all. Only the legacy of the blackmail remains.
If you can conjure 60 billion a month for 18 months out of thin air, then what the hell are we worrying about Greece, or any of the other PIGS, for?
Why worry about anything ever again. It’s not about trying to depress a currency?
At the Davos conference all the government finance heads were in unison. we do not interfere with the EU, Mr dragi does all that, we do fiscal domestic, next question. 60 billion a month for 18months, and no one bats an eye. It’s normal1
Dax was at 9380 on the 6th of January. Now 11340. a 20% jump in 10 weeks…A stated goal was to raise inflation. what a load of crock. They will do anything except what’s right and painful. Have cake, eat cake, get more cake to eat.
ps one thing that’s good about this board compared to advfn, it is more private. You can state a view without feeling everyone who’s in the business can profit from it and maybe go against you.
This was from my original forum post suggesting a long term short entry at this triangle back test targeting the line at 0.7030:
For me, that target still stands:
However as you can see from the Daily chart price is currently bang on the 61.8% fib from the all time low to the all time high. Maybe this is where a bottoming out process will begin.
Maybe if the 0.7030 long term target is achieved we could go long for a bounce to retest the underside of this fib level depending on whether its even recognised by the market.
The problem with the new ADVFN thread is simple.
The idiots will eventually find it and follow.
Over the years there have been many threads and they all got ruined in the end. For me it started on the Wanna Play FTSE thread in 2008 which was single-handedly ruined by one poster (MTG), then we migrated to Index Traders Corner Thread started by Mr Aboii (jpalmer25) but after 2 Years he no longer had time to moderate it after that same poster discovered it and ruined it.
That was 2010 so I started T.I.Ts thread. I couldn’t advertise it openly as we didn’t want the idiots following so I was chuffed when the first few posts started to appear from reputable posters. That thread went unnoticed by the idiots for almost 4.5 years and must have been one of the most successful threads on ADVFN, getting on for 6 million page views now. Sadly it couldn’t last forever and who’d have known DJ2 and MTG (now PF1) would be a match made in heaven!
Coming home from work to find 400 posts to read through after a quiet day on the market only to find 2 decent informative posts became too much of a slog so I went blue again to fully moderate it but the moderation tools were no longer working and ADFVNs solution was to start a new thread which objected to.
ADVFN were unhelpful and after a few complaints from me they had the audacity to shut down my affiliation account (which was £5 per sign up, and I never got paid a penny of it), so I requested they cancel and refund my blue membership before I took further action.
That was that and it inspired me to update this website and add a forum to it, so here we are.
I have some quite sophisticated tools in place to block certain IP addresses and even recognise when those users attempt to post from new IP addresses, and thus far it has worked well – look at the big gaps between many of the post ID#numbers on this forum – they are posts/users that have been blocked.
As for the new ADVFN thread – if it stays quiet as it is now it may remain under the radar for considerable time, but eventually if reputable posters are spotted posting there it will end up being trashed.
Its a pattern of events I can’t be bothered with anymore and this site has as much available as ADVFN does, including streaming charts and the original thread header from T.I.Ts.
If it fails it fails, but I’ll do my best to keep it high quality.
Finally, is anyone still in touch with smudgeroo? Someone attempted to log into his user account on here, possibly through hacking his personal email address and getting his login details, so I dropped him an email and restricted his account but he’s not been in touch.
I watched this shocking video when it was first on Youtube and 2 Years later its only managed 6000 views.
Surely this would be front page news for Months if the same occurred in the UK:
On of those clips you wish would carry on so the backtracking and squirming and “we don’t look at specifics” and “we don’t comment in individual cases” continues until all doubt that the well heeled deliverer is talking boLLo@ks and should be replaced.
The whole thing is one big con from day one. Leemans went to the wall because Dick folds wasn’t liked and there’s less competition now!
To not know who had the trillion is tantamount to me being a doctor and not knowing which of my patients has aids.
The whole things ridiculous. It’ll be the same with this Dragi qe. All the finance heads have distanced themselves from it “we leave all that to teh EU and Dragi” and in 3years someone somewhere will come out with some blinding documentary that tries to illuminate what the hell it was all for and where it all went.
Good points in response to my suggestion. In truth, when you see how the markets are actually run (see video for ultimate market last resort and fact that last resort doesn’t have an effing clue (see video)) it’s little wonder general index threads get overrun by cretins. Let’s face it, the whole thing is run by cretins in the first place, whose sole job has become take free money and speculate with it. See the books with their algo’s and drive direction in thin volume.
That’s basically it: one big charade/circus. Of which I’ve commented on for many years. Sure make money out of it, but there’s only so much you can say if you don#t want to stray away from the ‘forget about it and just make money’. You’re better off trading stocks really (cept gaps can be painful and there’s no out of hours)
Look at Zero Hedge. Expose everything every day something. And where’s it get anyone who goes, bloody hell yeah, those bastards….absolutely nowhere but the poor house.
It’s good that you can block little shit heads RS. Very good. I guess any that want to go both ways can. Pop out pop in. Live and let live.
As for markets now, i’ve got a bad neck and haven’t listened to tv pundit land for over 2weeks, which whilw refreshing, does mean i’m not au fait with what’s going on, but looking at price tells me no need to tune into that crap (and be subjected to hours and hours of ads for Quatar airways, or Cherie blair meets promos. No, the whole thing is just one big gloabal turd treading water. Churning over: currencies, commods, indicies. Dax melted up some, but still only 1400 points above 10k (and it was at 10K ages ago. It was at 8K decades ago.
Everyone seems to have actually forgotten about the stocks that make up the indicies, it’s the blunt hammer, it’s any excuse. Well euros going to get weaker therefore lets go up 25% and then reassess. But the co’s that make up the index have to justify prices and …well who am I kidding, that’s what rotation’s for!!! Even if they do take the piss with it.
Energy and financials are down a lot, and we’ve still gone on to make new global highs. No doubt on less volume, fewer participants etc. No wonder people get fed up with these markets. Before it was ‘honest’. Now, (2years ago) you can’t even get any honesty out of the organisation that’s supposed to regulate the markets!!
One rule for them etc. Read today a gang in Essex done for money laundering. Didn’t read past headline but they got a lot of time. How many times in the last 15 years have we heard of city crime that goes completely unpunished or, they get a fine that to the is like me paying a £2pound equivalent. But then, the whole systems corrupt, why should we expect the financial system to be any better>? Just pisses me off that the rest of us, the tax payers, the workers, get it regularly up us, and the elite just stick two thumbs up and go buy another island.