In the end I didn’t take the AUD:CAD swing short targeting sub 95.00 before my holiday. Wish I had now as the target was achieved and would have delivered a 400 point profit.
Unfortunately I chose to run a FTSE swing long from 6989 (entered 20th March) with stops at 6689 (just below the 11th March swing low that went to 6692). The trade was stopped out on 1st April (of all days) for a 300 pip loss. That trade demonstrates just how tough this game can be as price dipped just 17 points below my stop over a 5 minute time period and would now be back to 50+ points in profit.
Basically within 5 mins of turning the screen off on the afternoon of 24th March price never went a single point higher, it just headed straight to my stop loss, and on landing yesterday and seeing FTSE at 7040 I expected to be logging in to see a 60 point profit!
I hope you are well and your trading is going well.
I’d been watching FTSE for ages as you know, and knowing I was going away thus could not do anything silly like close the trade prematurely I decided now was the time to take the plunge with stops beneath the last major swing low.
Instant profits were not on the agenda, I didn’t mind waiting Months, just that we’ve had 3 higher highs since October as well as an ascending triangle breakout which subsequently retested the middle of the previous trading range (9th March) before rallying again.
As for the number of points it had rallied over a short period, that was no deterrent having seen so many times before big moves that just keep going and going (which leads to so many entering short on the incorrect pretense that its “gone up too far”. I believed from that point my stop loss could handle a retrace but would activate on a break of the previous major swing low. Clearly that turned out to be wrong.
Looking at the chart now and my stop was taken out by a simple “wash”, designed to do exactly that!
Quite upsetting when these things occur, and yes, hindsight does give a different view, i.e maybe the stop should have been below the daily 200 MA.
My upside target is/was unlimited, ideally looking for 7640 region sometime over the next 12 Months.
My trading has been going well this year…….so far.
I appreciate that it is each to their own but the closeness of thee SP to the upper rising trendline would have caused me to have held off. I presume you thought that it was going to power straight through or retrace before going through.
The wash finally did for you. Very nasty those washes but wernluck loves them!
Had a small swing short on USD:JPY which I’ve just covered – first FX swing trade I’ve entered for ages and it went straight into profit and stayed there which was nice (helped along by BOJ news on 13th April).
The current price at 118.84 is in the lower half of the 2015 trading range hence covering the position now.
Could potentially go lower, but thinking ahead maybe worth keeping an eye on this potential future retest line for re-entry: