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  • #3349
    bracke
    Participant

    I thought this maybe of interest

    It failed to drop to the black ML. Reached the blue ML. The red PF assumes that the ‘C’ pivot has been reached.

    AUD:CAD 4 Hour

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    #3350
    bracke
    Participant

    Herewith an update on AUD:CAD. I have repositioned the ‘C’ Pivot…..or is it.

    wernluck

    Do you consider the pin candle a wash?

    AUD:CAD 4 Hours

     photo AUDCADH4_zpsitkgbqtk.png

    #3351
    bracke
    Participant

    I appear to be posting to myself but as I started I will finish.

    The “maybe” ‘C’ pivot in the chart above was indeed the ‘C’ pivot and the price has duly dropped to the Median Line where it is currently being held.

    AUD:CAD 4 Hour

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    #3352
    riley9
    Participant

    Pitchfork has held well – I like them, they seem to be the only predictor and hold about 80% success. Dow very choppy, indicative of a major move brewing ?

    #3353
    Index Trader
    Participant

    Sorry I´ve not responded re AUD CAD etc, didn´t get a chance to post update before leaving to go on hols. Will be back in 10 days.

    #3354
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Morning,

    In the end I didn’t take the AUD:CAD swing short targeting sub 95.00 before my holiday. Wish I had now as the target was achieved and would have delivered a 400 point profit.

    Unfortunately I chose to run a FTSE swing long from 6989 (entered 20th March) with stops at 6689 (just below the 11th March swing low that went to 6692). The trade was stopped out on 1st April (of all days) for a 300 pip loss. That trade demonstrates just how tough this game can be as price dipped just 17 points below my stop over a 5 minute time period and would now be back to 50+ points in profit.

    Basically within 5 mins of turning the screen off on the afternoon of 24th March price never went a single point higher, it just headed straight to my stop loss, and on landing yesterday and seeing FTSE at 7040 I expected to be logging in to see a 60 point profit!

    #3355
    bracke
    Participant

    Good day RS2000

    What I am about to post is going to read as critical and resorting to hindsight. It is certainly not intended to be critical but probably does include an element of hindsight.

    1 A 300 point stop. What was your target? Even a 2:1 R/R required 600 point profit ie FTSE at 7589. A 1:1 R/R required FTSE at 7289.

    2 When you took the trade FTSE had risen from the low at 6692 to 6989 = 297 points. Were you really expecting it to continue up without a retrace for another 300/600 points?

    3 Using the four hour chart and drawing a trendline across the highs shows that on the 20 March the SP had risen (297) points back to the trendline and a retrace was likely.

    I could go on but I think I have made the point and I do not wish to prolong the agony.

    Regards

    bracke

    • This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by bracke.
    • This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by bracke.
    #3358
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Hi bracke,

    I hope you are well and your trading is going well.

    I’d been watching FTSE for ages as you know, and knowing I was going away thus could not do anything silly like close the trade prematurely I decided now was the time to take the plunge with stops beneath the last major swing low.

    Instant profits were not on the agenda, I didn’t mind waiting Months, just that we’ve had 3 higher highs since October as well as an ascending triangle breakout which subsequently retested the middle of the previous trading range (9th March) before rallying again.

    As for the number of points it had rallied over a short period, that was no deterrent having seen so many times before big moves that just keep going and going (which leads to so many entering short on the incorrect pretense that its “gone up too far”. I believed from that point my stop loss could handle a retrace but would activate on a break of the previous major swing low. Clearly that turned out to be wrong.

    Looking at the chart now and my stop was taken out by a simple “wash”, designed to do exactly that!

    Quite upsetting when these things occur, and yes, hindsight does give a different view, i.e maybe the stop should have been below the daily 200 MA.

    My upside target is/was unlimited, ideally looking for 7640 region sometime over the next 12 Months.

    #3359
    bracke
    Participant

    Good day RS2000

    Thanks for your reply

    My trading has been going well this year…….so far.

    I appreciate that it is each to their own but the closeness of thee SP to the upper rising trendline would have caused me to have held off. I presume you thought that it was going to power straight through or retrace before going through.

    The wash finally did for you. Very nasty those washes but wernluck loves them!

    #3360
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    I clearly did something wrong bracke, but these days one looks at a chart and if thinking about every past outcome of similar set-ups you’d potentially end up not trading at all.

    In previous years it probably would have powered straight up, but I guess the bull market could be getting tired now with less urgency to keep on rallying without consolidation or profit taking.

    #3361
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Wednesday has been mostly bear friendly, down 9 of the last 11.

    #3362
    riley9
    Participant

    What’s going on with cable – has the downtrend reversed or it is just a bounce ? It’s been going the wrong way since Monday !

    #3363
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Had a small swing short on USD:JPY which I’ve just covered – first FX swing trade I’ve entered for ages and it went straight into profit and stayed there which was nice (helped along by BOJ news on 13th April).

    The current price at 118.84 is in the lower half of the 2015 trading range hence covering the position now.

    Could potentially go lower, but thinking ahead maybe worth keeping an eye on this potential future retest line for re-entry:

    USD JPY 5 min 15th April 2015 photo USD JPY 5 min 15th April 2015_zpsdij21neh.png

    #3364
    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    I’ve been wanting to buy Cable for a few days based on some nice MACD divergences, but couldn’t see any other solid reasons to make it a buy so gave it a miss.

    Price not tested the 4 hourly 200 MA for a while so that could be where its heading, maybe even the Daily 50 MA which could be a nice short entry for the future.

    #3365
    riley9
    Participant

    re cable – I’ve a trendline from the peak on 24th feb to that on 4th april – seems to be heading to that. Would suggest any failure to break through could be an excellent short entry point.

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