Technical Index Trading & Analysis

Home Forums Technical Index Trading & Analysis Technical Index Trading & Analysis

This topic contains 459 replies, has 23 voices, and was last updated by  RS2OOO 1 year, 10 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 421 through 435 (of 460 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #3419

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    From Cobra:

    SPY closed below its BB bottom for 4 days in a row, buy at close today, HOLD until SPY closes above its BB bottom, you have 87% chances to make money. The profit factor is 7.0 which is very very good.

    #3420

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Cobras trade above is doing incredibly well. I’ve closed portions of it in stages (taken at £8 pp), with the last remaining £1 looking for 15,800 for 1000 points profit.

    #3421

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Just took a £5 scalp on DOW and it spiked in my traded direction the split second the trade entered, so I instantly closed it.

    Trade duration = 4 seconds.
    Profit = £185

    For a second it felt like how it must feel for the highest paid person in the world!

    £185 every 4 seconds would return an annual wage of £1,454,544,000

    #3422

    bracke
    Participant

    Good day RS 2000

    Well done with those trades.

    • This reply was modified 3 years, 1 month ago by  bracke.
    #3424

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Thank you bracke.

    I had a brilliant Week last Week and found it almost easy to take profit after profit.

    Today started out the same, scalped around a dozen trades during the day and they all achieved their goals. Then in the evening session it just went entirely wrong and I found myself holding on to losing positions on the basis they’d at least eventually achieve breakeven due to the volatility, but each one stretched beyond levels I was comfortable with and I took loss after loss to ultimately end the day down. It was stupidity on my part to be honest – trying to hold positions instead of taking the instant profits, but it was too volatile and I kept getting frightened out.

    #3425

    bracke
    Participant

    In the current climate I ascertain the target and do not wait too long once it has been reached to take the profit.

    It seems that it only needs the Chinese to say just about anything and the market soars or plummets but I do like the volatility.

    #3426

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Since July, for the last 10 Weeks U.S Indices have alternated between closing red and green. There’s no single time in history where I can identify this occurring previously.

    Based on that alone the chances of this Week closing Green must be incredibly unlikely, but I guess there’s nothing to say it would be impossible.

    #3427

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Cobra is saying when NYMO is above 300 as it is today, short the close and cover at tomorrows close and historically (since 2006) you have 100% chance of making money.
    The profit factor is 97.3 which is unbelievably high.

    #3428

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    So yesterday’s low didn’t get taken out. Fortunately I lost confidence in it and took break-even on the trade just in time.

    Still NYMO is very overbought so the chances are Thursday’s low will still get taken out eventually as the 97.3 profit factor still remains.

    #3429

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Daily MACD on DOW is the highest its ever been.

    Looking at 4 occasions where MACD was almost this high, on 2 occasions it marked an exact top, on 1 occasion it was followed by a top within a few days and on the most recent occasion price just carried on going up.

    However, on all 4 occasions MACD was almost this high, the very next day retraced at least 50% of the previous day’s candle, which translated to now would mean DOW will retrace to at least 17,670 tomorrow (Thurs). Futured are currently at 17,750 so thats at least 70 points profit on a short taken now.

    I’m going to try that trade.

    #3430

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    It didn’t quite retrace 50% of yesterday’s candle but 17,686 was an old intraday support that looked like it would hold so I covered the position at 17,700 to take 51 points.

    Today I took a long at 17,735 which I’m currently holding with a b/e stop. Price currently at 17,766 and the position is showing +31 pts.

    Other positions I’m currently holding are:

    AUD:NZD short from 1.0707 which is currently showing +130 pts.
    GBP:USD long from 1.5250 of which I closed 75% at 1.5480 for +230 points and I still hold the remaining 25% which is currently showing +62 points.
    EUR:USD long from 1.0975 which I only bought today and is currently showing breakeven.

    U.S Indices do look overbought and I really don’t get the logic of them rallying so hard, but at the moment there’s no obvious signs of a pull back. Today’s marginal new high came a bit too soon after yesterday’s new high, could be a double top, but more likely we’ll see another squirt higher before a decent pull back.

    #3431

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Just closed that 17,735 long at 17,800 for +65 pts.

    Can’t imagine that futures are going to hold this level all night so happy to bank it.

    This Months’s DOW candle is the biggest green Monthly candle ever – 2000 pips! Annoyingly I actually went long from the 29th October low based on a powerful MACD hidden divergence on the 5 minute time frame (8pm), but closed an hour later when it was over 100 points higher…. That would have been one to hold onto!

    #3432

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    EUR:USD long closed for +29 points.

    Today’s high was my upside target but I wasn’t near a screen to check on it during the 3 hour period it was up there and I hadn’t set a limit order.

    Unsure what to do with the AUD:NZD short…. its showing good profit but I think its still too early from a technical perspective to move stop to breakeven…. Do I bank the 160 points profit or do I stick to the technical’s and let the stop do its work? Tempted to bank on this one, or at least close out at the first signs of any strength.

    The GBP:USD long has stops at breakeven and a target of 1.5735 which would deliver just under 500 pips profit (remember this is only 25% of the original position as I banked 75% on the last rally).

    I took another DOW trade today, a long as there’d been no sign of any real weakness all afternoon. It immediately descended 150 points and I lost everything I’d made from it over the last couple of days. In hindsight the trade was stupid because the 17:45 high (which I’d bought) turned out to be a lower high against the previous 2 intraday highs. I should have waited for confirmation before considering a long…. Its so obvious, but I was blind to it at the time.

    #3433

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    Closed 75% of the AUD:NZD short at 1.0592 for +115 points.

    Its difficult to tell if this is the right decision, but with a bullish engulfing today and other AUD pairs looking like they may see a retrace to the upside I think my stop loss could be at risk unless I raise it above 1.08 which could see this profit turned into a 100+ point loss.

    I’ll leave the final 25% of the trade running until things become clearer.

    #3434

    RS2OOO
    Keymaster

    The remaining 25% of last Week’s GBP:USD and AUD:NZD longs were stopped out at breakeven.

    I was very close to buying USD:JPY on Thursday but eventually decided against it due to Non Farms being on Friday. In the event it rallied 200 points and it R:R looks a little poor to enter that trade now.

Viewing 15 posts - 421 through 435 (of 460 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.