I had a brilliant Week last Week and found it almost easy to take profit after profit.
Today started out the same, scalped around a dozen trades during the day and they all achieved their goals. Then in the evening session it just went entirely wrong and I found myself holding on to losing positions on the basis they’d at least eventually achieve breakeven due to the volatility, but each one stretched beyond levels I was comfortable with and I took loss after loss to ultimately end the day down. It was stupidity on my part to be honest – trying to hold positions instead of taking the instant profits, but it was too volatile and I kept getting frightened out.
Cobra is saying when NYMO is above 300 as it is today, short the close and cover at tomorrows close and historically (since 2006) you have 100% chance of making money.
The profit factor is 97.3 which is unbelievably high.
Looking at 4 occasions where MACD was almost this high, on 2 occasions it marked an exact top, on 1 occasion it was followed by a top within a few days and on the most recent occasion price just carried on going up.
However, on all 4 occasions MACD was almost this high, the very next day retraced at least 50% of the previous day’s candle, which translated to now would mean DOW will retrace to at least 17,670 tomorrow (Thurs). Futured are currently at 17,750 so thats at least 70 points profit on a short taken now.
It didn’t quite retrace 50% of yesterday’s candle but 17,686 was an old intraday support that looked like it would hold so I covered the position at 17,700 to take 51 points.
Today I took a long at 17,735 which I’m currently holding with a b/e stop. Price currently at 17,766 and the position is showing +31 pts.
Other positions I’m currently holding are:
AUD:NZD short from 1.0707 which is currently showing +130 pts.
GBP:USD long from 1.5250 of which I closed 75% at 1.5480 for +230 points and I still hold the remaining 25% which is currently showing +62 points.
EUR:USD long from 1.0975 which I only bought today and is currently showing breakeven.
U.S Indices do look overbought and I really don’t get the logic of them rallying so hard, but at the moment there’s no obvious signs of a pull back. Today’s marginal new high came a bit too soon after yesterday’s new high, could be a double top, but more likely we’ll see another squirt higher before a decent pull back.
Just closed that 17,735 long at 17,800 for +65 pts.
Can’t imagine that futures are going to hold this level all night so happy to bank it.
This Months’s DOW candle is the biggest green Monthly candle ever – 2000 pips! Annoyingly I actually went long from the 29th October low based on a powerful MACD hidden divergence on the 5 minute time frame (8pm), but closed an hour later when it was over 100 points higher…. That would have been one to hold onto!
Today’s high was my upside target but I wasn’t near a screen to check on it during the 3 hour period it was up there and I hadn’t set a limit order.
Unsure what to do with the AUD:NZD short…. its showing good profit but I think its still too early from a technical perspective to move stop to breakeven…. Do I bank the 160 points profit or do I stick to the technical’s and let the stop do its work? Tempted to bank on this one, or at least close out at the first signs of any strength.
The GBP:USD long has stops at breakeven and a target of 1.5735 which would deliver just under 500 pips profit (remember this is only 25% of the original position as I banked 75% on the last rally).
I took another DOW trade today, a long as there’d been no sign of any real weakness all afternoon. It immediately descended 150 points and I lost everything I’d made from it over the last couple of days. In hindsight the trade was stupid because the 17:45 high (which I’d bought) turned out to be a lower high against the previous 2 intraday highs. I should have waited for confirmation before considering a long…. Its so obvious, but I was blind to it at the time.
Closed 75% of the AUD:NZD short at 1.0592 for +115 points.
Its difficult to tell if this is the right decision, but with a bullish engulfing today and other AUD pairs looking like they may see a retrace to the upside I think my stop loss could be at risk unless I raise it above 1.08 which could see this profit turned into a 100+ point loss.
I’ll leave the final 25% of the trade running until things become clearer.
The remaining 25% of last Week’s GBP:USD and AUD:NZD longs were stopped out at breakeven.
I was very close to buying USD:JPY on Thursday but eventually decided against it due to Non Farms being on Friday. In the event it rallied 200 points and it R:R looks a little poor to enter that trade now.