04 Sep FTSE analysis for W/C 5th Sept 2011
Here’s a setup I like trading but unfortunately missed as my time was being spent building this site!
First of all, I’d like to say that in the bigger picture, I believe Indices are likely to trade a large range making it difficult for permabulls and permabears alike.
Although I believe long term tops are in place on Indices I trade, I don’t think we are likely to see massive moves to the downside so soon after this summer’s large sell-offs.
We are not seeing the MACD divergence I look for to confirm a long term low could be in place, so I strongly believe a retest or break of the August 2011 lows is a very high probability. September seasonality is slightly skewed to the bearish side so it is quite possible we’ll see these retests taking place over the next few weeks.
The 4 hourly spike above, and subsequent close below the 200MA combined with 50% fib retrace would have been a great low risk short entry, however, as I missed this trade I’m now hoping for a 2nd failure to break above the 200MA as an ideal short entry.
I’ll be watching this closely over the next few days, in particular the 5290 – 5300 price range which could offer some intraday setups we might be able to run with for an entry leading to an extension of the current leg down.
Four to five 4 hourly closes above the 200MA will probably have me scrapping the idea or stopping out of any positions I do take.