04 Nov GBP:NZD Swing Long 4th Nov 2014
After some Months without seeing a single swing trade opportunity I felt comfortable with, I’ve finally taken the plunge with a GBP:NZD swing long.
Although its a choppy pair to say the least, the overall trend has been up for almost 18 Months now even though a glance at the chart doesn’t immediately suggest that. Volatility aside, MACD and the moving averages do suggest a probable continuation of the ongoing move, which ideally will lead to a more sustained move higher.
With a wide stop loss presently set at 2.0282 I’m just hoping it’s wide enough to absorb the wild swings this pair tends to make.
A look at the Daily chart and the Fibonacci retracement of the current move – which is starting to look like a 61.8% rejection based on current price action, but I’ll continue to hold ahead of a 2nd attempt to move higher:
Of all the time frames the Monthly does look concerning with long term resistance at the recent highs, but even that is over 600 points above the current print meaning a 2nd failed attempt would still be enough to take a fair profit from the trade. A Golden cross of the 20MA and 50MA may also be on the cards here although we have an entire Month to wait before finding how that pans out:
This trade idea is certainly a little hit and miss so the position size is small and after a 6 Month break from swing trading it should give me a feel for current FX market characteristics.