04 Mar AUD CAD Analysis Ahead Of Short Entry For W/C 5th March 2012
My first ideal short entry for AUD:CAD has already been missed, well, 2 entries if you consider the more aggressive short entry that could have been taken from the failed trend line back test shown in the 4 hourly chart.
However, there may still be an opportunity to enter short against any strength over the coming days but caution will be required.
4 hourly AUD:CAD shows both the failed trend line back test and failure of the 200 MA to offer support suggesting that a back test of the 200 MA which over time would also combine with multiple other converging MA’s may offer an ideal entry. It’s hard to gauge how deep this pull back is likely to be, so if price continues to sell off straight from the open I’ll probably give this trade a miss on the basis of diminished risk vs. reward:
Daily chart offers a fair likely down side target in the 1.0530 region where support should be offered:
The Weekly chart implies reasonable probability that at least 1 or 2 more red Weekly closes are ahead and only a rally from very early on that forms a bullish engulfing Weekly Candle next Week can really negate this probability so watching shorter time frames will probably offer early signals of that possibility:
If I enter this trade I’ll probably define stop loss limits based on how price pans out between now and the entry, however I’ll post details of that in the comments section under this post as the price discovery process takes place.