08 Nov GBP CHF Brief Analysis For Swing Long Trade; 8th November 2012
First of all I’d like to apologise for neglecting the blog over the last Week, and to say I appreciate how many of you come back every day to check for new posts.
My commitments outside of trading have been immense over the last couple of Weeks and this looks likely to continue for a short while so I’ve not had the chance to really get into the trades I wanted to take.
EUR:GBP and CAD:JPY were both very interesting set-ups which I really wanted to trade, but my time away from the screen prevented entries being taken in either of them. EUR:GBP is probably a missed opportunity now, but CAD:JPY could still be worthy of a look ahead of shorting the next retrace, assuming there will be one before it gets too oversold.
GBP:NZD is also interesting for the long side. In fact I entered a swing long last night and was just about to post up the chart and the analysis for it when it spiked up almost 200 points in a matter of minutes, I just felt compelled to bank it there and then and that was the end of that!
In the mean time, GBP:CHF is something I’ve been watching for a while and it’s nearing a point now where a trading decision needs to be made. The following charts explain.
If price can hold above this support line, or at least stay above the previous swing low, there’s a potential here for it to break into a decent rally:
Target for that rally is clearly defined by this Fibonacci retrace shown here on the Weekly chart, which happens to combine with the green 200 MA. Just watch out for overhead resistance in the form of the 100 MA on the Daily chart above, and the blue 20 MA on this Weekly chart:
Whether this trade will play out or not is hard to say, but if it does take off, then a pop up to that 200 MA could happen very quickly over a 5 or 6 day period.
If I enter the trade, I’ll detail it in the trades log to the right of this post.