GBP:CHF Long Re-Entered And Mid Week Update

GBP:CHF Long Re-Entered And Mid Week Update

Having failed on the last attempt to trade the long side of GBP:CHF (arguably through poorly placed stop loss positioning), I re-entered the trade relatively late in the day at 1.4487 as price showed signs of the original analysis playing out.

This risk is, I could be wrong for a 2nd time! For analysis supporting the trade it may be worth revisiting the original post that can be found here.

Following that original analysis I don’t have a lot to add, only to say that the base of todays rally formed from this area of support on the 4 hourly chart and I’ve presently placed the stop loss marginally below todays low but really would like to get this tightened as soon as possible particularly as price is yet to confirm a higher high. Assuming it reaches there, I will watch price in it’s battle against the 4 hourly green 200 MA as a gauge of it’s strength:

More interestingly, the Daily chart has formed a bullish engulfing candle and to confirm this trade I would really want to see a higher close tomorrow. MACD has crossed positively and shows ideal, although not certain, characteristics in favour of a bullish move:

This Week has certainly shown a number of trading opportunities and my open swing positions remain as reflected by the trades log. As a recap:

  • USD:CAD – I remain long from 0.9993 on the basis of daily candle closes above 0.9979
  • USD:JPY – I remain long from 78.03 and will probably stop out on a daily close below today’s low
  • EUR:CAD – I remain short since November 2011 from 1.3803 and looking for a daily close below 1.3000 as confirmation to continue holding the position.

I checked on the GBP:CAD swing short this morning and it was close to 200 points profit so I set a trailing stop loss at 1.5652 without really considering that it might be reached. Price rebounded sharply from the morning lows and next time I logged in I was disappointed to see the trade had stopped out, though a tidy 118 points was banked and I was encouraged by the fact that price has rallied a further 50 points since then confirming that I was right to set the stop loss where I did.

The only other trade I currently hold is a day trade DOW short from 12,836 with a target of 12,710. Although this is a viable target that will probably be achieved I don’t necessarily see a good reason for price to head there in a straight line from here. So whilst futures currently sit at 12,759 I may consider closing before going to bed to reduce risks of being caught by a crazy futures overnight spike similar to that of last night’s! This trade is not detailed in the Swing Trading Log because it was not taken with the intention of being a swing trade.

All in all there’s a lot going on this Week and it’s nice to see a list of profits showing in the trading account, but it’s early days for most of the positions and the picture can change fast. Ultimately, only 118 points of those profits have been realised so far this Week and this could easily be undone if the open positions quickly turn sour. I guess that’s the risk we all take!

Good trading.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:36h, 15 February

    Decided to close the DOW short at 12,758 for + 78 pts.

    After all, the main trend is still up, price is at an area of support and although my target is 48 points south of here, after last night’s overnight exuberance I’m happy to go flat till tomorrow.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 16:57h, 16 February

    RE: The EUR:CAD short from November 2011, I have now closed this at 1.3046 for + 757 pts. I just keep seeing bullish possibilities in the current pattern and decided enough was enough. 3 Months in the trade to the exact day…. probably one of my longest holds of a swing trade.

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  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 18:58h, 20 February

    GBP:CHF was stopped out this morning for a 6 point profit. Due to commitments keeping me away from the screen today I chose to place stop loss just beneath the previous hourly swing low (coinciding with the hourly 100 MA) and the position was stopped out at around 10am.

    Twice I’ve tried the long side of this pair and each time I’ve felt uncomfortable whilst being positioned. Time to leave it alone for a while.

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