Market Thoughts; 14th January 2013

Market Thoughts; 14th January 2013

Not finding anything particularly easy to read at the moment, so treat the following post as me thinking aloud!

The 2 Indices I trade most are DOW and FTSE, so I’ll start with my thoughts on those.

First of all to make clear, I have no idea where they are going, struggling a bit to be honest, so the following is based on my system.

A 5 min close below 13,460 DOW and 6095 FTSE triggers a sell signal.

If those levels are not broken and both DOW and FTSE rally, then the reversal of that rally is likely to trigger a sell signal from higher levels…. obviously don’t know those levels yet, but in essence my system is flat and out of longs.

For resistances, there is trend line resistance on DOW hourly and 4 hourly at 13,600 and there’s a major Weekly down trend line/projected channel also at that precise level as shown on the following charts:

DOW 4 Hourly 14th Jan 2013

DOW Weekly 14th Jan 2013

Basically, if we go above 13,600 and get a daily close above there, I’m probably back to the drawing board in the short term.

Currencies seem to be in a world of their own and I don’t see any insight from them as to what Indices might do.

Swiss Franc and Yen seem to be in the middle of all the currency chaos.

Big numbers I’m watching for on GBP:USD and EUR:USD are 1.5848 and 1.3290 respectively where buy opportunities (or sell if breached) may exist. I think if you don’t have those levels marked on your charts already, they are worth adding to the Hourly time frame. Here are the charts:

EUR USD Hourly 14th Jan 2013

GBP USD Hourly 14th Jan 2013

None of this probably helps anyone, but I needed to get it written down for my own benefit if nothing else.

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 23:07h, 15 January

    Despite this post looking towards buyable support levels for GBP:USD, on further inspection I think that 1.5848 could become such a magnet that it’s worth entering short to participate in the journey to that level.
    This is an unusual trade for me, so I’ll be watching it intraday with a view to quickly covering on any sudden reversals, but for now I’ve placed stop loss on a Daily close above today’s high.
    My short is from 1.6075

  • Pingback:USD:CHF Brief Analysis; 15th January 2013
    Posted at 23:24h, 15 January

    […] an update, I’ve entered a small GBP:USD short following the analysis detailed yesterday. It’s not the type of trade I’d […]

  • RS2OOO
    Posted at 18:16h, 16 January

    Closed last night’s Cable short at 1.5990 for +85 points.

    Didn’t realise that I’d forgotton about an old support at 1.5960 on the Daily chart which is higher than the target level detailed in this post, therefore, as things are looking oversold I’ve decided to cover the position and take the profits available.

  • Pingback:This Week's Swing Trading Round - Up; 20th January 2013
    Posted at 22:21h, 20 January

    […] you know, I became very interested in buying the support levels on EUR:USD and GBP:USD detailed in this post, and whilst I’m waiting for these levels to be achieved IĀ felt the risk/reward was worthy of […]