13 Nov Short Term Market Outlook and Trading Update
Due to other commitments outside of trading my attention has been predominantly elsewhere though I have tried to follow Market movements where possible.
Firstly, a brief outlook of Stock Markets based specifically around the DOW which may look like it’s going to plunge, but I’m not sure about pre-empting that move for the following reasons:
Price is at support.
Today’s candle is a “Action” candle (or whatever it’s supposed to be called). Basically a massive range exceeding the highs and lows of the last 3 futures sessions and the highs of the last 4 sessions.
There are so many converging fib levels around the 12,750 to 12,770 levels, anyone of them could offer surprise support on a random “good news” data release.
MACD on all time frames (except Daily/Weekly) has confirmed positive divergence.
My system remains long until Friday’s lows are broken with a 5 minute candle close below them.
My personal opinion:
If you are not already short, I’d say entering now is a risky proposition.
I don’t think a low is in, but I do think the probability of a rally ahead of the next low is high.
Whatever happens, it will look so damn obvious after the event!
With regards to Swing trades, I did enter the EUR:GBP short that I’d been planning for so long. The entry was taken on Monday from 0.8005 and has spent most of it’s time in profit but right now it’s sitting at breakeven and there are some bullish signs creeping into the chart so I’m ready to cover this at a moments notice. For now, stops are above the 7th November high.
I’ve also finally got round to entering the CAD:JPY swing short, albeit right at the bottom of the 3 Month trading range. Maybe I’m being a bit hasty entering here based on all of the previous opportunities from higher numbers, but if it’s going to break down now is the chance for it to do so. If it breaks the previous Hourly swing high with conviction I’ll probably just scrap the trade but in the meantime I’m running stops above the highs of the last 3 Months, which does diminish the risk/reward on this trade.
In the meantime, I hope your trading is going well.