09 Feb Swing Trading Preview & Twitter Updates; W/C 10th Feb 2014
An unreliable internet connection has kept me from Trading for yet another Week but suddenly today its started working fine again despite no work being carried out on my line. In view of the Weeks of torrential rain followed by a single sunny and very windy day one can only assume the problems could be weather related.
One of the most common subjects I’m emailed about is that of creating a system to notify readers immediately when I enter a trade. I do post virtually all trade entries on my ADVFN forum but its become such a busy thread a single post can get completely lost very quickly. On some occasions a trade is entered through a limit order, or taken live but I don’t have the time to update the blog or email people details of it there and then. So on the basis that most smart phones now have the option to run a twitter feed on the home-screen I think this might be the best way of communicating trade entries without breaking any laws as obviously I’m not FSA registered etc. You can now find a twitter feed to the left of this post and click the user-handle to follow me if you so wish.
Going forward trading wise, here’s a few things I’m watching:
Looking for some kind of triangle formation here which could produce some nice short term swings on the short side with stops above the recent swing high:
Not so sure about this one but its on the watch-list following signs of weakening strength. The path I’ve annotated on the chart isn’t a highly probable one but indications are that we may see something along these lines. Ideally a short entry would come from a print higher than current levels in order to offer appropriate risk vs reward:
EUR:USD looks to be completing a fairly healthy looking correction that’s formed a bull flag. If price breaks through the falling trend line an aggressive trader may want to enter long straight away or for better risk vs reward wait for a confirmed back test offering support lower down which would allow for tight stops if that opportunity ever occurs:
With MACD well oversold and a left shoulder and head already in place I’d expect to see some upside to form a right shoulder. It would be unusual to see this pattern to fail to the downside without at least an attempt to rally again. Its likely a rally will eventually fail, but there’s certainly room for 200 to 300 pips of upside before that occurs whilst also having the advantage of being able to run tight stops from the 1.5030 region of support:
“Box Trade” short entries virtually always start out looking like this so the liklihood is that we’ll see a rally to re-test the support line at the bottom of the box. Its difficult to tell where that rally will start from and thus it is risky, but with MACD positively diverging against the main down trend if a rally can commence from current levels there could be a good 600+ point move to the upside over the coming Weeks.
So as things stand these charts show the better set-ups currently available and it would be fair to assume at least half of them will play out as expected, the key is just to choose the right one for the next trade!