This Week’s Swing Trading Review; 31st March 2012

This Week’s Swing Trading Review; 31st March 2012

The lack of updates from me continues! This is simply because I’m not seeing a trading environment that inspires confidence in committing to swing positions. You often hear people say “being flat is a position” and at the moment I think that rings true.

The set-ups I’ve detailed over the last Week or two still stand, but none are giving me what I want to see before taking the plunge, so for now I’m just keeping an eye on them.

There are a few others I’ve not talked about that are on my radar and these include EUR:USD, GBP:JPY, some of the Swiss pairs, and Indices. My system is long on DOW, but still short on FTSE which doesn’t inspire confidence for either direction but that said I am long on FTSE from 5757 simply because DOW had triggered long on Thursday and I expected FTSE to do the same today but it hasn’t as yet and therefore I’ll probably be looking to exit the position at or around break-even if it continues to stay weak. Hopefully the first day of the new Quarter will see some buying!

One trade I did enter this Week was short EUR:GBP from 83.82 and this is based on the analysis I carried out back in January in this post. Problem is, I entered short based on the Weekly candle rejection from the 20 MA which occurred right at the top of the last 3 Months range and therefore offering the opportunity to exit quickly if price broke out of that range, but the positive MACD divergence on the daily time frame suggests a medium term low could already be in place. So, we have an ugly chart that looks bearish but indicators showing signs that it could burst into a rally. Based on this I’ve already put the stop loss at break-even and the trade goes into the Weekend showing +52 points.

Although I’m not confident about the trade in the longer term because of that diverging MACD I’ll make the effort to post an updated analysis over the Weekend as I did promise to do so at the end of the first Quarter (It was the quarterly candle that interested me, but as it’s ended as a doji it’s no help whatsoever!).

You may remember my first swing trade of the year was an AUD:NZD short. I reversed long from support and after holding that position for what seemed an eternity I finally gave up on it. Well, look at the chart now….. should have just stuck with that original short which would now be showing a 650 pip profit!

So once again apologies for the limited number of updates, there are good trades out there but I’m just not seeing anything that fits my low risk trading style. As soon as something comes up, you’ll see it here first.

As it’s now the end of Q1, here is the final status of realised gains and losses Year to Date account for swing trades only, and only trades that were taken following original analysis posted on this blog:

In the meantime have a great Weekend.

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