08 Oct This Weeks Swing Trading Round-Up
This week has proven to be yet another week where all of the pre-planned trades that were taken played out perfectly. I don’t know how long this can last, but I’ve been saying that for weeks now so can only conclude that the inception of this blog has in some way disciplined me into only taking the absolutely highest probability trades. The only downside being that when everything plays out as planned it makes the blog a little uneventful with not a lot of new content to add mid week.
The DOW Versus AUD:CHF crash comparison played out perfectly on the hourly time frame though I kept that as a day trade as opposed to a swing trade.
I took the GBP:CAD range trade short as planned and the trade worked so well that on seeing 417 points profit in under 36 hours I just banked it without hanging around. Although it could still go much lower, I think the juiciest part of this trade is done and dusted for now.
I’m still holding the AUD:NZD swing long. It’s not a particularly nice trade to be in because one minute it can look really bullish, then the next minute it’s selling off fast. I did briefly move the stop loss below break-even to give it some breathing space, but soon raised it back up and wont be moving it again. The trade currently shows approx 120 pips profit. The main thing that’s stopped me bottling out of the position is the fact that due to the interest rate differential between the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar I’m getting paid a daily interest credit to hold the position so with stops at breakeven this trade cannot lose.
The EUR:GBP swing short also played out quite well. It was looking oversold on Monday so I closed half the position for a 177 point profit. The 2nd half was stopped out on a trailing stop loss for 30 points profit when BOE news caused a massive spike up on Thursday, however, the original swing trade set-up was still valid so I re-entered the position at an even better level than the first entry (0.8720) and hope to collect all those points all over again for a “free” 2nd go. The position goes into the weekend showing a 125 pip profit with stop loss now ready to move to break-even.
Finally, one trade I didn’t take this week was the Cable long (GBP:USD). It did re-test support as I thought it should, but I just didn’t feel comfortable about taking an entry for various reasons both technical and fundamental (More QE from BOE). As it turns out, the trade would be showing a nice profit had I taken it, but I’m still not convinced about the viability of the trade. I think it’s worth taking a look at this 4 hourly chart showing a perfect backtest of it’s down channel, but also a rally that has found resistance in the form of an unusual trendline. If you are familiar with Cable you will be familiar with it’s ability to find support and resistance at trend lines that seem to have no real foundation. This is a common trait of Cable and can get you into some great trades that the average Technical Analyst may miss altogether.
Let’s now wait and see which of these lines is going to give up first.
As for set-ups ahead of next weeks trading, there are a couple I’ve been working on but neither are quite ready to take yet but I’ll attempt to get a snapshot up on the blog prior to Sunday night’s open to give you a head start.
Everyone trades differently, so if you think you’ve seen a nice swing trade set-up that I’ve not yet covered on the blog feel free to post details of it in the comments section and I’ll be happy to run my ruler and crayons over it and if it’s worthy of discussion I’ll run a full post on it.
Have a great weekend.