02 Jun This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 1st June 2013
Another quiet Week where I found it difficult to spot any high probability set-ups although there were and still are a few I keep going back to.
The AUD:NZD swing long was stopped out on Wednesday for a 180 pip loss. Within hours I became convinced it was going to rebound having taken mine and probably many other stop losses at the max-pain threshold, so I’ve actually re-entered the trade from 1.1895 and the trade goes into the Weekend showing a 158 pip profit. Defining an upside target is a little tough because its still hard to tell whether this is just a retrace within an ongoing down trend or whether a larger scale reversal is taking place. For now I’d probably guess at the former so the key here is to watch the moving averages for signs of them offering support or resistance and also for signs of them turning up.
Here’s the Daily chart as it stands right now:
EUR:USD also remains on the watch-list but whilst most traders seem to have a short bias I’m looking at it with the possibility of a swing long. There are some red flags, specifically the text book Head and Shoulders bearish formation but as I’ve noted before, over the last couple of Years I’ve been less convinced that head and shoulders patterns have a statistical probability of either direction. For now EUR:USD remains above support but that alone isn’t enough to convince me to enter the trade at the current price level. Best to see how it performs over the coming days before committing.
Here’s the Daily chart clearly showing the H&S pattern, the lows of which are also a retest of last Years falling wedge break-out…. bullish or bearish? Its hard to tell for sure!
With regards to day trading indices, the last Week produced higher lows and lower highs throughout alongside bouts of dull trade and bursts of volatility. Generally I’d have thought this is ideal for day trading, but it didn’t work for me and I ended the Week in an overall loss.
Hopefully next Week will be better!