21 Jan This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up 21st January 2012
It’s been a fairly good start to the year from a Swing Trading perspective with a few select opportunities performing reasonably well. On some trades entered so far we’ve not seen the moves I initially envisaged but there have been good opportunities to exit trades well before profits turned back to losses.
Cable reversed hard from it’s new low and I was taken out on a trailing stop loss for a 91 pip profit. It is disappointing that I didn’t act on the reversal earlier but using a trailing stop loss was the easiest way to manage this trade and 91 pips is not to be sniffed at.
CAD:JPY was more disappointing. The initial set up was technically almost perfect and I believed this trade would deliver in a big way but again it reversed with conviction and rather than widen stops to the previous major swing high I chose to just take a small loss and get out. It will be interesting to see how this chart progresses but as the word on the street is to sell Yen I want to see how things pan out before considering re-entry.
I re-entered GBP:CHF short as a momentum play because the reversal from the previous highs looked like it could have some legs, but as short term indicators started turning up I gradually reduced my exposure, taking 50 pips on half the position, then another 60 pips on 25% of the position and finally being stopped out at breakeven on the remaining 25%. This gave an aggregate gain of 40 pips hence the * next to the result in the table to the left of this post.
Gold short was entered earlier in the Week and has bounced between a profit and a loss. I have a massive stop loss on this position but have to say I’m a little concerned by Friday’s close. I need to have a closer look and decide whether the trade is worth hanging onto for the anticipated end result.
Most of the traders I speak to seem dumbfounded by the rally in equities. Some statistical records have been broken this Week and it’s fair to say that I was caught out on a trade taken based on huge statistical probabilities (A red OPEX close) that in the event were completely ignored by the Market. You can’t deny the way Indices look suggests they’re going even higher and if you want to get involved with them then the obvious trade right now is to buy an intraday pull back. If you don’t feel comfortable doing this, then stay out and find something better to trade.
I’ve spent the last 3 hours analysing EUR:USD to establish whether it’s printed a short to medium term low. For now the conclusion is that we need further confirmation but it’s worth noting the average EUR:USD sell off that is as linear as the current one generally lasts around 4000 pips and contains a couple of green Weekly closes at the half way mark. As we are 2000 pips from the October high, history would suggest that a low is not yet in and this is a retrace that we can sell in the bigger picture. That said, there are a few things I’m watching and next Week will be pivotal. I detailed the analysis on my ADVFN forum but it would be too much information to reproduce here as there are so many “if’s” so if I see a swing opportunity I like for either direction I’ll post up the chart and go from there.
With regards to trading opportunities amongst other FX pairs and Indices, there’s nothing right now that I can be really confident about but may post up a few possibilities over the next day or two.
The new trades log table to the left of this post seems to be working well and I’m finding it a good way to keep on top of my positions. Sometimes I’m unable to update it live when taking the trade in which case the live entry will be posted on my ADVFN forum. As always the analysis behind a prospective trade will be posted on the blog ahead of the entry and details of the entry will be posted in the comments section beneath that analysis. Obviously I’d never condone that you take any trade based on my analysis but I hope it offers an insight.
Have a great Weekend.