23 Sep This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 22nd September 2012
The Week began with the following thoughts, which were posted on my ADVFN forum:
FTSE / DOW to look for long opportunities over the next day or 2.
EUR:GBP as a potential swing short.
Some Yen Pairs nearing previous swing highs in long term Macro down trends. Either Yen has printed a major reversal, or, tops are very close ahead of continuation of the down trend.
CHF:JPY at the Daily 200 MA for a potential swing short, but the risk is that it’s already near the bottom of it’s multi year trading range so would need more convincing before entering a position.
AUD:CAD – It’s first bounce from a low is rarely bought in a straight line. It should either retrace back a bit or continue it’s down trend. I’m not sure which, but either way there should be some points to collect on a short over the next Week or so.
GBP:USD also nearing it’s previous long term swing high on the Weekly chart, but I’m not so sure if this one is shortable because GBP looks strong almost everywhere. (Hence my interest in the EUR:GBP short).
CAD:JPY also worth watching for a potential short and continuation of it’s long term down trend. The risk on this one being it’s last 2 major swing lows were higher lows, and it’s last 2 major swing highs were lower highs. Maybe a triangle that could be difficult to trade on a long term view, but ok for a few days at a time.
Most of those potential trade ideas would have delivered a profit of some kind (except GBP:USD, though I wasn’t too keen on that one anyway). My favourite of them all was the EUR:GBP short, which is the one I took.
So far, EUR:GBP hasn’t shown the Weakness I’d really like to see, so at the moment I’m seriously considering closing half the trade out to let the remaining portion run as a “free” trade. The following charts detail my thoughts.
I really wanted to see the Daily chart break and close below the blue 20 MA. On Friday morning this looked quite likely, but some how it managed to creep above the 20 MA for the close. This makes it more difficult to tell if we are seeing a buyable dip in a new up trend, or genuine continuation of the main bear trend that preceded this rally. MACD has crossed down, but at the moment that doesn’t tell us a lot. I would say the higher probability still lies with lower numbers ahead based on this time frame alone, though they may not come as soon as I’d hope:
The 4 Hourly time frame backs up the risks in the short term. Price has consolidated around the (orange) 100 MA whilst the MACD histogram is showing very clear divergence. Based on this chart alone, I’d say there are still buyers in this market and now is their chance to show how much strength they’ve got:
The trade goes into the Weekend showing a 34 pip profit. Not a huge profit, but a fair profit for a forex pair that moves as slowly as EUR:GBP does when you consider the move from the high to the current level in the above chart is only 120 pips.
So, my plan here is to see how Sunday night’s open looks with a view to probably protecting some of the available profits by closing half the position, then watching and waiting before making further decisions. For now, the stop loss remains above 0.8158
I’ve not had a chance to look at anything for next Week yet, but will do so over the next 24-48 hours.
Hope you are enjoying your Weekend.