27 May This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up 27th May 2012
Another relatively quiet Week from a swing trade perspective with only 1 new position taken.
EUR:AUD was rejected perfectly by the 61.8% fib retrace detailed in this post, however I wanted confirmation of this rejection before entering a position and unfortunately each time I opened the chart price was oversold on shorter time frames meaning wider stop losses than ideal would have been required. In the event I gave up waiting for that perfect entry and took a swing short on Friday from 1.2851 – almost 180 pips lower than where I’d first started planning the entry!
Although the position is showing a profit at present, I’ll be monitoring it closely and ready to exit if major news comes out of Europe over the next few days pushing the Euro higher. If I’m to be honest, I don’t know what the reaction will be to a Greek Exit of the Euro, if anything I’d expect equities to rally but I’m not sure whether the Euro will do the same or not.
I’m also still holding the AUD:NZD short discussed in previous analysis and discussed last Weekend but this trade hasn’t been entered into the Swing trade log because at the time of entering I didn’t plan to run it as a swing trade. That position is currently around 30 pips in profit.
In the bigger picture I’m not really sure of direction across most pairs and specifically across Indices. The trend for equities is essentially down and I believe they will eventually go lower but in the short term we do have a number of set-ups in place that could spark a relief rally and I’ve no idea how powerful that could potentially be.
I’ll have a more detailed scan over the charts later today and if I spot anything interesting I’ll post up the details.
Hope you are enjoying this sunny Weekend!