31 Mar This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 31st March 2013
Following last Week’s analysis of NZD:CHF I spent the earlier part of this Week looking for an entry, but the pair just wouldn’t pull back. Every time I checked the chart it had rallied further than so in view of the fact it just rallied and rallied on its previous break out I decided to just take the plunge and run with it using wide-ish stops.
Entering trades mid-rally has never been something I’m particularly good at as it almost guarantees an instant correction and although NZD:CHF initially rallied when I entered the trade at 0.7955 it has since retraced a little and the trade goes into the Weekend showing approximately -10 points. Looking back its fair to say I may have left this set-up too long before taking it but if it can still reach my target of 0.8210 that would give a gain of 250 points whereas if my stop loss is taken out it would incur a loss of around 170 points. I guess the risk vs reward is OK for a high probability trade, but its certainly not brilliant.
Beyond NZD:CHF I’ve been sitting on my hands through most of the Week and continue to watch the same pairs I’ve discussed over recent Weeks.
In particular I continue to watch AUD:NZD for a higher low with a view to entering a swing long, but nothing concrete there yet. If support is found in the 1.2395 to 1.2415 area I might be interested in trying a long position.
Further to that there isn’t a great deal more to say. Indices are traditionally bearish in the days following Easter Weekend and in the first days of a new quarter so I’ll be watching out for day trade opportunities there but will leave them alone if we get stuck with low volume chop. It is worth noting in all but a couple of occasions in the last 15 Years or so there has been a correction of 5% or more across U.S and U.K Indices at some point between February and May and now we are into April this will surely be getting closer. In fact, 4 of the last 5 May Monthly candles have closed red, generally with fairly large corrections occurring in that Month so it is possible we’ll need to wait another Month for the real moves but there should be plenty of trade-able supports and resistances in the Weeks proceeding a correction and that’s where good day trading will come handy.
Hope you are enjoying your Easter Weekend!