08 Jul This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up 7th July 2012
Unfortunately yet another empty Week from a Swing Trading perspective!
I’ve no idea whether it’s my (incorrect) interpretation of what I’m seeing in the Markets, or whether all Markets are setting up for huge volatility, but this last couple of Months has not offered anything that fit my usual swing strategies.
Considering that for the last couple of Years I’ve averaged 5-6 decent swing trades per Month, sometimes considerably more, then this recent period is just emptiness in comparison.
Much of my time has been spent taking trades on Indices, usually day trades but sometimes leading to trades that last a couple of days, but I tend not to swing Indices in the same way as FX as I’ve become over-familiar with their movements on such a micro scale it tends to lead to uncertainties when actively swinging them. That might just be a leverage issue as I do tend to trade them in larger size than FX pairs so quite often I’ll have no need or desire to run those positions for much longer than intraday.
Having been stopped out of last Week’s GBP:CHF swing long, which of course has since rallied hard into a potentially decent sized profit, I came to realise that GBP:CHF has historically been the least profitable FX pair of all for me, just check out the entries in the swing trade log to see the number of losses taken on this pair. Carrying out further analysis of those trades I came to realise that although some were genuinely bad trades, the vast majority would have been significantly profitable had I used wider stop losses. This is something I’ll need to consider in future.
Finally, You may be thinking, when is he going to give up on the long GBP:NZD idea, surely he’d have realised by now the trend is clearly down and it’s never ever going to reverse? Well, I was about to finally admit defeat and suddenly, I spotted this, a back test of it’s long term Weekly falling wedge:
Could it find support at this level? Well, I’ve pretty much given up looking for the support that will eventually turn this pair around, but I guess I’ll have to watch it a little longer just to see what happens here!
If GBP:NZD does continue to sell off, history shows that it will generally be a bullish sign for the Stock Markets as there does appear to be correlations between the 2 in certain periods of time.
As always, I’ll continue watching for new trade-able swing set-ups, but in the meantime have a great Weekend.