09 Dec This Week’s Swing Trading Round-Up; 9th December 2012
The only action taken this Week was to close existing swing positions. No new positions were opened for reasons I will explain in a moment.
The DOW swing long from 12,870 was performing very well initially, but price kept finding resistance at the 13,045 region which was expected, so I closed half of the position for a profit of 177 points leaving the second half to run with trailing stop loss.
After around 3 or more failed attempts to break through the 13,045 area I decided to raise the stop on the 2nd half of the trade to a break of the previous hourly swing low of 12,929 and withing 24 hours the 2nd half of the trade was stopped out at 12,927 for a profit of 57 points which gave an aggregate profit on the trade of +117 points.
At the time of this stop out I looked through all of the time frames to re-analyse whether my stop loss level was correct, and I felt quite confident that it was. There was absolutely nothing on the chart I could see that would suggest an imminent rally from that level, yet by morning futures had rallied over 100 points and never looked back. I’m usually suspicious of moves like this and would expect price to eventually reverse to re-test the 12,920 area during the cash session. So far that has not happened, in fact quite the opposite. The conclusion here is that I’ve either been “tricked” out of my trade, or we’ll have a sudden sharp reversal. I’ve no idea which is the case, so prefer to stay flat for now.
Around the same time all that was going on, the EUR:CAD swing long had rocketed through resistance and was looking somewhat perky despite entering an old congestion zone. Well, I’ve learned a few times in the past, once you start counting profits on an open trade it’s usually time to get out of it, so I did, and that turned out to be the top. Perfect timing on my part, albeit as much luck as it was judgement. That trade banked a profit of +186 pips and certainly opens up the possibility of opening similar “200 MA” based trend trades in the future as you’ll remember this was a trial trade based on a very simple formula around the 4 hourly 200 MA.
Going forwards, I’ve not had much time to analyse markets in detail and don’t have any surefire set-ups that I’m overly keen on. My life outside of trading has been more than hectic so I’ve decided to take a well deserved break and therefore will not be trading or updating this blog over the next 2 Weeks.
On my return I’ll run through a round-up of all this years trades identifying where improvements could be made and analysing why some of the winning trades were so successful with a view to taking many more next year.
In the meantime, have a great Christmas.